Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 222206

Tropical weather discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Mar 22 2018

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2115 UTC. 

...Special features...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: strong high pressure over the 
southeast Continental United States extending south across the 
Gulf of Mexico is currently supporting fresh to strong winds in 
Tehuantepec downstreaming near 12n97w. Winds in the Gulf are 
forecast to increase to minimal gale force tonight and then 
diminish again to fresh to strong around 1200 UTC Friday. Seas 
will build to a Max of 11 ft. Winds will further decrease Sat 
afternoon as the ridge drift E of the Gulf of Mexico.  

Ashfall advisory: Santa Maria Volcano on Guatemala near 
14.7n91.5w is currently in a state of unrest and could erupt 
will little notice. Mariners operating in the vicinity of Santa 
Maria are urged to exercise caution.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

A surface trough extends from 08n81w to 06n89w to 05n95w. The 
ITCZ axis continues from 05n95w to 06n120w to 07n140w. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is from 03n to 08n between 
82w and 96w and from 03n to 07n between 99w and 110w.


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

Please see see special features section above for details on 
gale force winds expected to affect the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Weak high pressure is centered W of the Baja Peninsula near 26n 
119w. The high will support gentle northerly winds in the baja 
offshore waters through tonight. Moderate northerly winds will 
develop Fri morning as a strong ridge builds NW of the area 
behind a weakening cold front moving into Southern California. 
Winds will increase to fresh during the weekend as the high 
continue to strenghten while moving east and north of forecast 
waters. Winds will further increase to strong Monday morning as 
the pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure 
developing north of Texas increases.

Gulf of california: light to gentle variable winds will dominate 
the Gulf waters through the weekend. Winds will increase to 
moderate to fresh early on Monday and to fresh to strong in the 
souther half of the basin Wed night. 

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador... 

Gulf of papagayo: the fresh to strong northeast winds downstream 
from the Gulf of papagayo will continue through mid next week 
with seas building to 11 ft.

Fresh to strong northerly winds are also expected downstream of 
the Gulf of Panama through Friday evening. Light to gentle flow 
will prevail elsewhere across the region.

Remainder of the area... 

A low pres system well N of the area extends a cold front from 
30n121w to 22n126w to 16n135w. The low will continue to lift N-
NE away from the area tonight, and the front will weaken then 
dissipate into Fri night. Large NW swell associated with the 
system will propagate southeastward across the NW forecast 
waters through Sat.



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