Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 152215

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Feb 15 2019

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2130 UTC.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...

A surface trough extends from 06n77w to 05n82w to 05n92w to 
02n102w, where latest scatterometer data indicated the ITCZ 
begins and continues to 04n115w to 04n125w and to 05n140w.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm north of 
the trough between 83w and 101w.


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...  

A dissipating cold front has swept across Baja California norte 
and into NW Mexico since this morning and has weakened to a 
frontal trough extending through 30n112.5w through 27n113.5w to 
22.5n120w. Strong southwest to west winds just ahead of this 
feature over the northern Gulf of California have diminished and 
become NW as strong high pressure is beginning to build into the 
region from the NW. Elsewhere on both sides of the frontal 
trough southward to 19n, generally moderate northwest to north 
winds prevail. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in NW swell prevail south of 
Punta eugenia, while new NW swell arriving north of there is 
producing seas 6-9 ft. 

A reinforcing front will sweep across Southern California and 
the same northern areas as todays front, with a very strong and 
broad high pressure ridge to build from north of Hawaii 
southeastward across the region tonight through the weekend. 
Fresh to strong northwest to north will develop tonight through 
Sat across the offshore waters of baja and increase to strong 
with possible isolated areas with gale force wind gusts Sat 
night. Large NW swell will also spread into the regional waters 
with this building ridge, raising seas to 8 to 11 ft west of 
Baja California on Sat and to 10 to 16 ft Sat night and sun.

South and east of las islas revillagigedo, gentle to moderate NW 
to W winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds on Sat 
through sun, with seas of 4 to 6 ft expected to build to 8 to 10 
ft. A weak trough is expected to prevail near the coast of 
Manzanillo, allowing for little change in gentle winds east of 
there through sun.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Fresh northeast winds over the Gulf of papagayo will diminish to
the moderate range Sat afternoon and change little through Sun
night. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds will remain across the
forecast waters through Mon as a weak anticyclone sets up near 
12n96w on sun.

Remainder of the area... 

Strong high pressure centered well to the northwest of the area 
is building southeastward across the northern and central 
portions of the area. A trough is analyzed from near 16n127w to 
09n133w. A tight gradient between the trough and the building 
high pressure is resulting in strong to near gale force winds 
from 10n to 16n west of 137w along with seas in the range of 10 
to 13 ft. The trough is forecast to weaken through Sat allowing 
for these winds to diminish to strong into sun over the area 
primarily from 10n to 28n W of 130w, with seas of 10 to 14 ft in 
northwest to north swell. This northwest swell will overspread 
the entire area by the end of the weekend, with slow decay 
expected to begin late sun into Mon.

Abundant mid and upper-level moisture in the form of overcast to 
broken mid and upper-level clouds continues to stream 
northeastward in strong jet stream related southwest flow over 
the northwest part of the area with embedded areas of rain and 
possible scattered showers.

$$ Stripling


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