Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Weather Discussion
000 axpz20 knhc 281545 twdepTropical weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Apr 28 2017Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC....Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...A surface trough axis extends from 10n87w to 07n103w to 05n123w, where the ITCZ forms, and then continues WSW from 05n123w to 02.5n132w to beyond 03n140w. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 02n to 07n between 83w and 106w. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.5n to 06n E of 79w. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm either side of line from 07.5n126w to 11n140w....Discussion...Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...Strong to near gale force northwest winds continue across the discussion waters from 28n to 30n and west of the Baja Peninsula to near 125w , with seas of 9 to 13 ft in northwest swell. These winds and seas will persist through Saturday as a strong pressure gradient remains over the area between high pressure to the west, and low pressure over the southwestern United States. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in northwest swell will propagate as far south as 20n between 114w and 130w on Saturday before conditions begin to slowly improve over these waters Saturday night into Sunday.Gulf of california: mostly gentle to moderate southwesterly flow is expected through Friday night, with brief fresh to locally strong northerly winds possible over the Gulf waters north of 30n briefly this afternoon and evening, and then Sat as a cold front passes across the area. The fresh to strong NW winds with and behind this front will shift S and into central portions Sat through Sat night and gradually build seas 5-7 ft before an improving trend begins Sunday.Gulf of tehuantepec: gentle to moderate southerly flow expected this weekend with fresh north winds possible near daybreak on Monday.Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail with seas primarily between 6 to 8 ft.Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and within 750 nm of Ecuador...Mostly a gentle onshore breeze is expected during the next few days becoming offshore along the coasts at night. Combined seas of 4 to 5 ft in mainly southwest swell will continue through these waters through tonight. Wave model guidance forecasts large long period southern hemispheric southwest swell of 5 to 7 ft to approach the offshore waters of Ecuador on Saturday, and again on Monday night.Remainder of the area...a 1028 mb high pressure system remains just north of the area near 35n136w, with a ridge extending southeastward to 20n120w to near 15109w. This high pressure system covers the area north of the ITCZ and west of about 115w. A tight pressure gradient between the high and low pressure over the southwestern United States will continue to support strong northwest winds along with seas of 8 to 13 ft north of 28n east of 125w through Saturday, before they begin subside through the remainder of the weekend. Fresh northeast trades are expected between the ridge and the ITCZ W of 125w over the next several days, with seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed northeast and northwest swell expected through Saturday night. Southern hemispheric swell will propagate across the waters south of 10n between 95w and 120w today through early Sunday, resulting in seas of 8 to 10 ft.$$ Stripling
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