Tropical Weather Discussion

000 
axpz20 knhc 161558
twdep 

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Nov 16 2018

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC. 

...Special features...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: gale force winds continue to 
blast across and downstream of the Gulf, extending as far S as 
13.5n96w, accompanied by seas to 16 ft. Presently, a large wave 
field generated from this gap wind event extends south and 
southwest from the Gulf to the equatorial waters west of the 
galapagos islands, and as far southwest as 09n112w. Wind and 
associated seas will gradually diminish through late Sat 
morning. Strong to near gale winds will then pulse through early 
next week, with still a possibility of minimal gale conditions 
during the late night and early morning hours due to the 
enhancement of nocturnal drainage flow. 

...Tropical waves...

A tropical wave is located from 05n to 12n along about 137.5w, 
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is observed from 06.5n to 12n between 130w and 140w.

.Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10n74w to 06n78w to 09n86w to 
06.5n96w. The ITCZ then continues from 06n97w to 09n133w to 
beyond 08.5n140w. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
noted within 120 nm S and 180 nm N of the trough and ITCZ 
between 92w and 112w, and also from 08.5n to 14n between 117.5w 
and 124w.

...Discussion...

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico... 

Gulf of Tehuantepec...refer to the special features section for 
the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.

Gulf of california: moderate NW-N winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are 
expected across the entire Gulf waters this morning into the
afternoon. Light N winds are forecast by this coming evening, 
and light and variable winds are expected by late Sat. Moderate 
NW winds will develop across the entire Gulf waters on Sun night,
becoming a fresh breeze over the northern waters on Mon into 
Tue.

A NW to se ridge extends across the Mexican offshore waters W of 
104w with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow forecast through 
Thu of next week. 

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Gulf of fonseca: fresh to strong northerly winds are diminishing.

Gulf of papagayo: fresh to strong NE winds will continue to 
pulse through the next several days, with the strongest winds 
expected during the late night into the early morning hours. 
Seas will fluctuate around 8 ft during the period of strongest 
winds.

Northerly swells from a Gulf of tehunatepec gap event will 
propagate se into Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters 
through this coming evening before beginning to fade, and mix 
with an approaching pulse of long period SW swell, to maintain 
seas of 4-6 ft.

Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, is 
forecast S of the monsoon trough through early next week, as the 
cross equatorial SW swell dominates seas after the demise of the 
current Tehuantepec wind event.

Remainder of the area...  

Refer to the special features section for swell propagating W 
from the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A ridge is meandering from 32n128w to beyond 22n112w. Fresh to 
locally strong trades, and 7 to 10 ft seas, are observed N of 
the ITCZ to 10n and west of 128w, and from 10n to 16n between 
118w and 128w. These conditions are forecast to shift westward 
and slowly diminish through Sat.

A cold front will reach 30n140w by early Sat, accompanied by a 
fresh SW-W-NW wind shift and 7 to 10 ft seas. The front will wash
out between 125w and 130w early next week. Another round of NW 
swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will reach 30n140w late 
Tue as the next cold front enters the area.

  
$$
Stripling


		
		

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