Tropical Weather Discussion

000 
axpz20 knhc 281545
twdep 

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Apr 28 2017

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1430 UTC.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

A surface trough axis extends from 10n87w to 07n103w to 05n123w, 
where the ITCZ forms, and then continues WSW from 05n123w to 
02.5n132w to beyond 03n140w. Scattered to locally numerous 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 02n to 07n between 
83w and 106w. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.5n 
to 06n E of 79w. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted within 150 nm either side of line from 
07.5n126w to 11n140w. 

...Discussion...   

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

Strong to near gale force northwest winds continue across the 
discussion waters from 28n to 30n and west of the Baja Peninsula 
to near 125w , with seas of 9 to 13 ft in northwest swell. These 
winds and seas will persist through Saturday as a strong 
pressure gradient remains over the area between high pressure to 
the west, and low pressure over the southwestern United States. 
Seas of 8 to 10 ft in northwest swell will propagate as far 
south as 20n between 114w and 130w on Saturday before conditions 
begin to slowly improve over these waters Saturday night into 
Sunday. 

Gulf of california: mostly gentle to moderate southwesterly flow 
is expected through Friday night, with brief fresh to locally 
strong northerly winds possible over the Gulf waters north of 
30n briefly this afternoon and evening, and then Sat as a cold 
front passes across the area. The fresh to strong NW winds with 
and behind this front will shift S and into central portions Sat 
through Sat night and gradually build seas 5-7 ft before an 
improving trend begins Sunday.

Gulf of tehuantepec: gentle to moderate southerly flow expected 
this weekend with fresh north winds possible near daybreak on 
Monday.

Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail with seas
primarily between 6 to 8 ft. 

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Mostly a gentle onshore breeze is expected during the next few 
days becoming offshore along the coasts at night. Combined seas 
of 4 to 5 ft in mainly southwest swell will continue through 
these waters through tonight. Wave model guidance forecasts 
large long period southern hemispheric southwest swell of 5 to 7
ft to approach the offshore waters of Ecuador on Saturday, and 
again on Monday night.

Remainder of the area...

  
a 1028 mb high pressure system remains just north of the area 
near 35n136w, with a ridge extending southeastward to 20n120w to 
near 15109w. This high pressure system covers the area north of 
the ITCZ and west of about 115w. A tight pressure gradient 
between the high and low pressure over the southwestern United 
States will continue to support strong northwest winds along 
with seas of 8 to 13 ft north of 28n east of 125w through 
Saturday, before they begin subside through the remainder of the 
weekend. Fresh northeast trades are expected between the ridge 
and the ITCZ W of 125w over the next several days, with seas of 
6 to 8 ft in mixed northeast and northwest swell expected 
through Saturday night. Southern hemispheric swell will 
propagate across the waters south of 10n between 95w and 120w 
today through early Sunday, resulting in seas of 8 to 10 ft. 

$$
Stripling


		
		

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By Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:07 PM UTC on April 03, 2017
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