Tropical Weather Discussion

000 
axpz20 knhc 210138
twdep 

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0104 UTC Wed Aug 21 2019

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC. 

...Special features... 

A low pressure system of 1008 mb is located near 15n103w or 
about 200 miles south of michoacan. The large area of showers and
thunderstorms associated with this low are beginning to show 
signs of organization, and environmental conditions are favorable
for further development. Currently, numerous moderate and 
scattered strong convection is located from 10n to 17n between 
96w and 110w. A tropical depression is likely to form Wednesday 
or Thursday as the low moves WNW at 10 to 15 kt, parallel and 
several hundred miles offshore the coast of central Mexico. This 
system could still produce locally heavy rainfall and flash 
flooding over Oaxaca, Guerrero, and michoacan over the next 
couple of days. The latest tropical weather outlook gives this 
low a 90 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 
hours. A recent altimeter pass showed seas of 8 to 9 ft to the 
south and east of the low's center, and winds and seas are 
expected to increase through the week near the low. A Gale 
Warning is in effect for Mexico offshore waters from Acapulco to 
sinaloa as well as the waters offshore the southern parts of Baja
California sur.

Farther west, another weak low pressure system is located near
16n123w about 1000 miles WSW of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula and continues to produce disorganized
showers and a few thunderstorms, generally from 12n to 17n
between 125w and 135w, well west of the center. Environmental
conditions no longer appear conducive for development, and there
is now only a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the
next several days. This low is expected to move slowly west
through the week.

Refer to the latest NHC tropical weather outlook under 
AWIPS/WMO headers miatwoep/abpz20 knhc for more information on 
both of these lows.

...Tropical waves...

A tropical wave axis is located near 90w. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is located from 05n to 12n between 80w
and 90w.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...

The monsoon trough extends from 08n80w to 12n90w to low pressure
near 15n103w to 12n110w to 18n120w to low pressure near 16n123w
to near 12n135w. Convection in the vicinity of the trough is
mainly associated with the aforementioned lows and tropical
waves.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

Please see the special features section for more details about 
the low pressure area offshore Guerrero.

High pressure well northwest of the area will promote fresh to 
locally strong NW winds offshore of Baja California norte 
through Wed. Low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will induce 
fresh to strong se to S winds over the Gulf of California Thu and
Fri.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

A weak pressure gradient is producing only gentle to moderate 
winds across the region for the next several days. Long-period 
cross equatorial SW swell will reach the waters between Ecuador
and the galapagos islands on Wed, building seas to 6 to 7 ft 
late Wed into Thu. 

Remainder of the area...

Please see the special features section for more details about 
the low pressure area near 16n122w.

A 1022 mb high pressure located near 33n128w extends a ridge 
across the northern forecast waters. This system will remain 
nearly stationary over the next 48 hours producing mainly gentle 
to moderate winds N of 20n and W of 110w. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the 
monsoon trough will result in moderate to fresh trade winds S of 
20n. Wind are expected to increase S of the monsoon trough Wed 
through Thu night, particularly between 105w and 120w. As the
monsoon through continues to lift northward as the low pressure
located offshore Mexico moves WNW, combined SW swell and wind
waves to the south may produce seas of up to 10 ft S of 15n
between 100w and 120w Wednesday and Thursday. Some northerly
swell will reach south of 30n around 120w Thursday, with some
seas of 8 to 9 feet possible.

$$
Konarik


		
		

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