Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 152320

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
620 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through southern coastal Liberia, Africa 
near 05n09w and extends to 04n15w. The ITCZ continues from point 
to the coast of Brazil near 04s38w. Scattered showers are 
occurring south of 05s between 18w and 32w. A surface trough is N
of the ITCZ extending from 08n20w to 03n21w with scattered 

Gulf of Mexico...

A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters. Latest
scatterometer and surface data depict a light to gentle southerly
wind flow across the eastern half of the basin, while moderate 
southerly winds prevail over the wester half of the Gulf. 

The surface ridge will prevail across the basin through the
weekend, maintaining moderate southeasterly return flow over the 
western Gulf. The next cold front will reach the northwest Gulf 
of Mexico on Sunday and extend from the Florida Panhandle to near
Tampico, Mexico by early Monday as broad pressure forms off 
Veracruz in the southwest Gulf. The front will stall across the 
northern Gulf waters through Tuesday morning.

Caribbean Sea...

A mid to upper-level trough extends from the west Atlantic to a 
base over the western Caribbean. This trough continues to support 
a surface trough that extends from the Cayman Islands to the coast
of se Nicaragua. Diffluent flow to the east of the upper- level 
trough supports scattered showers across Hispaniola and adjacent 
waters. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the 

The surface trough will dissipate this evening. Moderate to fresh
winds are over the central and eastern Caribbean and will 
continue through Saturday night. However, winds will increase in 
the southern Caribbean by early sun due to the high pressure 
building north of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are 
expected over the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras 
Sunday night through Tuesday night, with gale conditions possible
off Colombia on Sunday night and Monday night.

Atlantic Ocean...

A mid to upper-level trough over the west Atlantic supports a  
frontal system across this area, analyzed as a stationary front
from 31n65w to a 1011 mb low near 29n72w. A surface trough extends
from the low to 23n78w. Low-level moisture inflow from the 
Caribbean into this system supports scattered showers north of 
20n between 60w-72w. The remainder central and eastern Atlantic 
is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb surface high
centered near 31n35w. 

Expect for the frontal system to slowly push northeast of the 
area through Saturday. A new cold front will move across the 
waters north of 29n by early Sunday, pushing east of 65w by early
Monday. Another cold front will move across the waters by Monday 
afternoon, pushing east of 65w by early Tuesday.

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