Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 161740

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
140 PM EDT sun Jun 16 2019

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1719 UTC.

...Tropical waves...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21w S of 13n. Scattered 
showers with isolated thunderstorms are seen near this wave from 
03n-08n between 20w-23w. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38w S of 13n. Scattered
showers are seen near this wave from 04n-08n between 36w-38w. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54w S of 12n. Scattered
moderate convection is impacting the area near this feature from
07n-11n between 50w-56w.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66w S of 17n. Isolated
thunderstorms are seen from 16n-17n within 50 nm of this feature,
otherwise no convection is associated with it.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78w S of 17n. No
significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 
11n15w to 07n20w. The ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave near
06n23w to 06n37w, then continues W of another tropical wave near
06n38w to 07n53w. Once again, it continues W of a tropical wave 
near 07n55w to the coast of Brazil near 06n58w. Scattered moderate
convection is seen along the ITCZ from 04n-08n between 23w-36w. 
Scattered moderate convection is also seen farther west near the 
ITCZ from 08n-11n between 39w-48w. 

Gulf of Mexico...

An mid-level trough is lifting north over Florida and the se Gulf
with upper level diffluence from a digging trough over the lower 
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a trough is off the coast of 
Florida from 28n83w to 26n84w. This is giving way to scattered 
moderate convection across the se Gulf and central/South Florida, 
with isolated thunderstorms firing along the central and 
northeastern Gulf. This convection is seen from 25n-30n between 
81w-89w. In the Bay of Campeche, scattered moderate convection is 
seen from 20n-25n between 93w-97w.

Light to gentle winds are seen in the eastern Gulf with gentle to  
southeasterly winds in the western Gulf.

Moderate to locally fresh southeast to south winds will prevail 
across most of the basin through Thursday under the influence of 
a ridge.

Caribbean Sea...

An upper level ridge dominates the basin bringing subsidence to 
the area. Because of this, low-topped showers are seen across 
Puerto Rico and into the Lesser Antilles. Isolated thunderstorms
are noted in portions of western and central Cuba, some of which 
are moving into adjacent waters. Otherwise, no significant 
convection is noted. Moderate to fresh trades are seen in the 
Central Basin, with gentle to moderate trades in the eastern 
Caribbean. In the western basin, light to gentle trades are noted.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the 
Colombian low will allow winds to increase to near gale force off 
the coast of Colombia and Venezuela. Maximum seas will build to 
12-14 ft. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf 
of Honduras at night. 

Atlantic Ocean...

Scattered moderate convection from a mid-level trough and upper- 
level divergence is seen across Florida and the western Atlantic. 
This convection is noted from 23n-30n between 76w-81w. 

A stationary front enters the waters near 31n66w to 29n71w. 
Showers and thunderstorms are seen within 70 nm of this boundary 
between 64w-69w. A 1019 mb low is analyzed near 2752w with a 
trough along it from 29n51w to 25n55w. A cold front is noted in 
the central Atlantic from 31n30w to 31n39w. Clouds and light 
showers are seen along this front. Surface ridging dominates the 
rest of the basin, with a 1021 mb high analyzed near 22n41w and a 
1022 mb high near 24n26w with tranquil conditions. 

A surface trough will move slowly eastward E off NE Florida 
Tuesday through Thursday. Elsewhere, a ridge will dominate the 
region through Thursday as high pressure builds across the central

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