Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 202349

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
749 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2320 UTC.

...Tropical waves...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 27w S of 18n,
moving W around 15-20 kt. Tpw imagery continues to show the wave 
being accompanied by a large area of high moisture content. 
Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are seen from 07n- 
15n between 25w- 29w.

A central Atlantic tropical wave along 54/56w from 11n-21n, 
originating from the subtropics, is moving westward at 15-20 kt. 
Showers are seen near within 100 nm of this wave. 

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of the gambia/senegal 
near 13n17w to 10n27w to 08n42w. The ITCZ extends from 08n42w to 
09n51w to the coast of Guyana near 07n58w. Aside from the 
convection mentioned with the tropical wave, scattered moderate 
convection is seen along the monsoon trough from 04n-14n between 
14w- 39w. Showers are within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 42w-51w.

Gulf of Mexico...

A mid-level trough extends into the northern Gulf of Mexico which
is bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms mostly N of
27n, between 82w-91w. Meanwhile, a trough extends into the Gulf
from Florida from 24n83w to 27n82w. This is providing focus for
thunderstorms to ignite right off the Florida coast. A trough in
the Bay of Campeche is analyzed from 18n94w to 23n97w with 
scattered convection seen from 21n-24n between 96w-97w. A tropical
wave is noted over central Belize/Yucatan and is bringing 
convection to Yucatan. Some of this convection is entering the Bay
of Campeche from 19n-23n between 90w-93w. The latest scatterometer
data depicts light to gentle winds across the Gulf with moderate 
winds in the Bay of Campeche near the trough. 

A surface ridge extending across the northern Gulf from Bermuda 
high pressure will maintain mainly gentle to moderate E to se 
winds across much of the Gulf through Sunday night. The passage 
of a tropical wave Wednesday night will support fresh to locally 
strong winds in the SW Gulf Wednesday night and Thursday. 

Caribbean Sea...

Upper level troughing is noted across the northern Caribbean with
the tropical wave over Central America. This is bringing 
unsettled weather mostly across the western Caribbean and the 
Greater Antilles. Scattered moderate convection is moving across 
the islands of Cuba to Puerto Rico and southward to Jamaica, from 
18n-22n between 67w-83w. Meanwhile, the tropical wave is bringing 
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection across Nicaragua 
and Honduras which is entering the Gulf of Honduras and NW 
Caribbean, from 16n-21n between 84w-87w. Dry air is seen over the 
central and eastern Caribbean, with isolated light showers passing
through the Lesser Antilles. Latest scatterometer data depicts 
moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean, with moderate 
trades over the remainder of the central and NW Caribbean. 

A tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize will 
support showers and thunderstorms over the Caribbean W of 80w 
tonight. Strong winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras Wednesday 
night and Thursday night. Winds will remain fresh to locally 
strong over the S central Caribbean through the forecast period as
the pressure gradient persists between high pressure N of the 
region and low pressure over Colombia. The next tropical wave 
will cross the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday night, then continue 
W and reach the western Caribbean by the end of this week.

Atlantic Ocean...

Middle and upper level troughing is seen over the western 
Atlantic. This is supporting scattered moderate convection across 
the Bahamas and the western Atlantic waters, from 22n-31n between 
70w- 80w. A surface trough is also being reflected from 23n63w to 
30n62w with isolated showers seen within 50 nm of this feature. 
High pressure dominates the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 
1023 mb high near 32n52w. 

An upper-level trough extending SW from 31n70w to 24n81w will 
support showers and thunderstorms over the Bahamas tonight. A 
surface ridge extending W from Bermuda high pressure will dominate
the northern waters through Saturday, with gentle to moderate E 
to se winds prevailing across much of the region. Fresh to locally
strong trades are expected at night between Hispaniola and the 
Turks and Caicos Islands. 



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