Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 210600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/210600z-220600zsep2017//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 6.9n 135.4e,
is now located near 7.5n 133e, approximately 100 nm west of Palau.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts light convection
over an ill-defined low level circulation (llc).  A 210101z metop-a
ascat image shows the same, with 10-15kt winds turning into an llc in
the early stages of development. The disturbance is currently located
in an area of good divergence aloft, low vertical wind shear (10-15
knots), and very warm sea surface temperatures (30-31 celsius).
Currently global models are split as to the track of this disturbance
and are currently not showing development. Maximum sustained surface
winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is
estimated to be near 1011 mb. Due to the lack of formative banding
and the slow development of the llc, the potential for the
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours remains low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//

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