Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 201000
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans reissued/201000z-210600zaug2019//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/200921zaug2019//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone formation alert
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 97w) previously located
near 13.5n 133.8e, is now located near 13.6n 133.7e, approximately
360 nm northwest of Yap, fsm. Recent animated infrared satellite
imagery and a series of recent microwave satellite images (200420z
amsr2, 200600z SSMI, 200654z ssmis) indicate a consolidating low
level circulation with increasing deep convection near the center.
The disturbance is tracking over very warm water (28-29c), with
moderate (20-25 knots) but decreasing northeasterly vertical wind
shear and favorable westward and equatorward diffluence aloft. Global
models have shifted into broad general agreement that the circulation
will develop into a tropical cyclone over the next few days, with the
majority indicating a generally northwestward track toward Taiwan.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.
Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1005 mb. The
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high. See ref a (wtpn21 pgtw
200930) for further details.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: upgraded area in paragraph 1.B.(1) to
high. //

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