Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abpw10 pgtw 151930
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans reissued/151930z-160600znov2018//
rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 98c) previously located
near 8.3n 150.1e, is now located near 7.8n 148.5e, approximately 204
nm west-northwest of Chuuk. Animated multispectral satellite imagery
and a 150316z amsr2 89ghz microwave image depicts a slowly
consolidating low level circulation (llc) with scattered convection.
Upper level analysis shows 98c in area of low to moderate (15-20
knot) vertical wind shear with radial outflow. A recent partial
ascat pass shows a broad asymmetric circulation. Sea surface
temperatures (28 to 30 degrees celsius) in the surrounding area
remain conducive for future development. Global models are in
general agreement with a western trajectory, however differ in
timing and intensity. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated
at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be
near 1004 mb. The potential for the development of a significant
tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.
      (2) an area of convection (invest 91w) has persisted near 9.2n
114.2e, approximately 451 nm east of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. Animated
enhanced infrared imagery shows a disorganized system with patches
of deep convection surrounding and partially obscuring the low level
circulation (llc). A 151344z mhs metop-a 89ghz microwave image
depicts some slight surface wrapping with scattered mid-level
convection. 91w is in a favorable environment for future development
with high sea surface temperatures (28 to 30 celsius), excellent
poleward outflow, and very low vertical wind shear (5 to 10 knots).
Global models are in good agreement that 91w will track generally
west, but disagree on whether it will intensify. Maximum sustained
surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots. Minimum sea level
pressure is estimated to be near 1010 mb. The potential for the
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours is low.
      (3) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: added area in para 1.B.(2) as a low.//
Nnnn

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