Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 260600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
South Pacific oceans/260600z-270600zapr2018//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection (invest 93w) has persisted near 3.3n 
144.6e, approximately 534 nm southeast of Yap. Animated 
multispectral satellite imagery shows a broad low-level circulation 
covered by flaring convection. A 252326z metop-b 89ghz microwave 
image shows formative banding wrapping into an area of deep 
convection. A 260026z ascat pass reveals cyclonic turning and 
troughing, a line of convergence, and an area of 20 knot wind barbs 
to the west of the center, but not a closed low level circulation. 
Environmental analysis indicates that 93w is located in an area of 
low (5-10 kt) vertical wind shear, and strong divergence aloft which 
is fueling deep convection. Warm (28-30 celsius) sea surface 
temperatures are favorable for development. Global models do not 
show development in the 96 hour window at this time. Maximum 
sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea 
level pressure is estimated to be near 1008 mb. The potential for 
the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 
hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//

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