Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abpw10 pgtw 151730
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans reissued/151730z-160600zjul2018//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/151351zjul2018//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
Rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 151200z, tropical depression 11w (eleven) was located 
near 19.1n 128.1e, approximately 489 nm northeast of Manila, 
Philippines, and had tracked west-southwestward at 14 knots over the 
past six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 25 
knots gusting to 35 knots. See ref a (wtpn31 pgtw 151500) for 
further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 93w) previously located 
near 18.9n 108.4e is now located near 19.1n 108.1e, approximately 62 
nm south-southeast of Bach long vi, Vietnam. Animated enhanced 
infrared imagery depicts improved deep, curved convective banding 
wrapping into a defined low level circulation center (LLCC). A 
151356z 89ghz mhs microwave image supports that the convection has 
continued to become better organized and is wrapping in from the 
south into a broad LLCC. The surrounding environment has improved, 
which is now more conducive for development. The system is located 
in an area of moderate vertical wind shear (15-20 knots) with a weak 
ridge building in from the north that will reduce wind shear in the 
region. There is weak divergence aloft and warm sea surface 
temperatures (29-30c), which will aid development. With the improved 
environment, dynamic models now indicate that the system may develop 
into a weak tropical depression before tracking to the west and 
making landfall on the Vietnam coast. Maximum sustained surface 
winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is 
estimated to be near 1000 mb. The potential for the development of a 
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.
      (2) an area of convection (invest 94w) has persisted near 
15.9n 133.1e, approximately 657 nm south-southeast of Kadena AB, 
Okinawa. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a 
consolidating system with formative banding persisting over the 
southern semicircle. A 151254z AMSU 89ghz image depicts fragmented 
convective banding wrapping into a broad but defined low-level 
circulation center (LLCC). A 151211z ascat ambiguity analysis 
indicates a weak, developing circulation embedded within the monsoon 
trough with 15 to 25 knot westerlies. Upper-level analysis reveals a 
favorable environment with a point source over the LLCC and 
improving poleward outflow into the TUTT positioned to the 
northeast. Global models indicate significant development over the 
next two days as the system tracks west-northwestward to 
northwestward toward the Taiwan / ryukyu islands region. Maximum 
sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea 
level pressure is estimated to be near 1000 mb. The potential for 
the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 
hours is medium.
      (3) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: added medium area in para. 1.B.(2) and 
updated para. 1.B.(1).//
Nnnn

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