Tropical Weather Discussion


abio10 pgtw 221400
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian Ocean
ref/a/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/221321sep2019//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone formation alert.//
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 96a) previously located
near 19.2n 70.2e is now located near 20.4n 68.1e, approximately 560
nm east of masirah island, Oman. Animated enhanced infrared
satellite imagery and a 221135z 91ghz ssmis image depict a
consolidating low level circulation center (LLCC) with deep
convective banding over the western quadrant. A 220448z ascat-b
image also depicts a well defined circulation with 25 to 30 knot
winds in the northwest quadrant. Upper level analysis reveals 96a
has relatively weak upper level outflow, but is moving into an area
of favorable vertical wind shear of 5-10 knots. Sea surface
temperatures also remain favorable at 27-29 degrees celsius. Global
models are in good agreement that 96a will continue to slowly
consolidate and intensify while tracking westward towards Oman.
Additionally, ECMWF shows 96a reaching sustained winds of 35 knots
by tau 30. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30
knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1002 mb.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high. See ref a (wtio21 pgtw
221330) for further details.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: upgraded area in paragraph
1.B.(1) to high.//

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