Tropical Weather Discussion


abio10 pgtw 251800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 97p) previously located
near 9.3s 134.9e, is now located near 7.4s 132.5e, approximately 275
nm north of Darwin, Australia. Animated enhanced infrared satellite
imagery depicts an elongated low level circulation with persisting
convection beginning to wrap into the center. A 251324z AMSU-b metop-
a 89ghz microwave partial pass shows shallow convection located over
the low level circulation. The disturbance is currently located in a
marginal but improving environment with high vertical wind shear (25
knots), that is being offset by strong poleward upper level outflow
and very warm sea surface temperatures (30-31 celsius). Global
models are in agreement that the disturbance will continue to track
to the southwest over the next several days but are in disagreement
as to when and how strongly the system will intensify. Maximum
sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea
level pressure is estimated to be near 1003 mb. Due to the improving
environment the potential for the development of a significant
tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//

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