- Day Three
acus02 kwns 121729
Storm Prediction Center ac 121728
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 am CST Thu Dec 12 2019
Valid 131200z - 141200z
..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
northern Florida...southern Georgia...and far southern SC...
A few thunderstorms strong enough to produce isolated damaging wind
gusts may occur across parts of northern Florida and southeastern
Georgia, mainly from late Friday afternoon through early Saturday
..northern Florida/southern Georgia/far southern SC...
Large-scale troughing over the central/eastern Continental U.S. Will amplify
Friday as a shortwave trough moves from the southern/Central Plains
across the lower MS valley and southeast. As forcing for ascent
associated with the shortwave trough overspreads these regions, a
weak surface low initially off the coast of la/MS should develop
northeastward across parts of the southeast to the mid-Atlantic
while gradually deepening through the period.
A warm front will lift northward across northern Florida into parts of
southern Georgia Friday afternoon/evening, with generally lower to mid
60s surface dewpoints across the warm sector. Low to mid-level flow
will gradually strengthen through the day, and should markedly
increase late Friday evening into early Saturday morning. There is
still some uncertainty regarding how far north into Georgia the warm
front will reach, and this will impact the northern extent of
surface-based thunderstorm potential. Regardless, weak instability
coupled with gradually increasing shear through the
afternoon/evening should support at least modest storm organization.
Isolated strong to damaging winds should be the main threat with any
storms that form along/ahead of an eastward-moving cold front
attendant to the surface low. As low-level shear increases, a
tornado or two may also occur if storms can persist from late Friday
evening into early Saturday morning.
..Outer Banks of NC...
Late in the period shear will quickly strengthen across NC/SC as the
shortwave trough approaches. Most guidance suggests that appreciable
potential for surface-based convection will remain just off the
coast of the Outer Banks as the surface low develops northeastward
and dewpoints gradually increase. At this point, it appears that the
potential for severe storms should also remain over the Gulf Stream.
..maximum risk by hazard...
Tornado: 2% - marginal
wind: 5% - marginal
hail: <5% - none