U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 241709 
Storm Prediction Center ac 241709 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1209 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017 

Valid 251200z - 261200z 

..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from northeast OK 
across southeast Kansas and into southwest MO... 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across much of 
eastern OK into western MO... 

Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind are expected 
to develop across parts of northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas and 
southwest Missouri Tuesday evening, and may persist into Wednesday 

An upper trough will amplify across the Southern Plains with strong 
southwesterly flow aloft developing from Texas into the mid MS valley. 
At the surface, a low pressure trough will precede a cold front, 
extending from western OK into central Iowa at 00z, with dryline 
extending southward across central OK and into Texas. The front will 
move southward overnight, to a North Texas to central MO line by 
Wednesday morning. Ahead of these boundaries, a moistening and 
destabilizing air mass will reside, with dewpoints rising into the 
60s. Increasing wind fields as well as lift along the front will 
result in a corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms beginning 
Tuesday evening across northeast OK/southeast Kansas. 

..northeast OK...Southeast Kansas...western MO... 
strong heating will occur across much of central and western OK into 
southern KS, south of the cold front and along and west of the 
dryline. Surface flow will be somewhat veering/southwesterly, but 
winds will back by evening as a 50 kt low level jet core develops 
generally east of I-35. Storms are expected to initiate near the 
dryline/cold front intersection across south central Kansas or north 
central OK, then increase in coverage and intensity during the 
evening as lift increases along the front. Mean wind fields will 
increase overnight with the main upper trough amplification. A 
mixed-Mode of supercells and linear/bows appears probable, with 
large hail and damaging winds expected. The linear forcing mechanism 
coupled with nocturnal timing suggest any tornado threat will be low 
or brief. 

.Jewell.. 04/24/2017