U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 161701 
Storm Prediction Center ac 161700 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1100 am CST Wed Jan 16 2019 

Valid 171200z - 181200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

a few thunderstorms are possible across parts of California into the 
Great Basin on Thursday. Severe weather is not expected. 

An upper-level trough will move eastward across the eastern U.S. On 
Thursday as an upper-level ridge moves into the High Plains. Further 
west, a shortwave trough will move onshore across California. Ahead 
of this trough, large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates 
will be favorable for isolated thunderstorm development Thursday 
afternoon and evening from California eastward into the Great Basin. 
Instability should be too weak across the western U.S. For a severe 
threat. Elsewhere across the conus, thunderstorm activity is not 
expected on Thursday or Thursday night. 

..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: <2% - none 
wind: <5% - none 
hail: <5% - none 

.Broyles.. 01/16/2019