- Day Three
acus03 kwns 180732
Storm Prediction Center ac 180731
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 am CDT sun Mar 18 2018
Valid 201200z - 211200z
..there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across much of
central and northern Florida...
..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across far
southern Georgia into Florida...
A corridor of severe winds, and perhaps a tornado will be possible
across parts of northern Florida on Tuesday.
..synopsis and discussion...
An upper low will deepen over the southeast as a broad, cyclonically
curved upper jet develops across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This
trough will be moving quickly, with rapid cooling aloft
overspreading the region. At the surface, a cold front will progress
across southern Georgia and northern Florida during the day, with mid to
perhaps upper 60s f dewpoints resulting in 1000-1500 j/kg MUCAPE.
Impressive mean wind speeds will develop with models suggesting
40-50 kt westerly flow in the 925-850 mb layer. Models are in good
agreement suggesting storms developing over the eastern Gulf or
eastern Panhandle early in the day, and peaking during the 15-21z
time frame. The most likely storm Mode is a qlcs, with both damaging
winds and perhaps a tornado or two possible.