U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 200729 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0229 am CDT Tue Aug 20 2019 

Valid 221200z - 231200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from southern 
Kansas and Missouri into northern Oklahoma and Arkansas...and over 
the northern High Plains... 

At least isolated severe storms are possible Thursday from parts of 
Kansas and Oklahoma eastward across Missouri and Arkansas, and from 
eastern Montana into the western Dakotas. 

Strong west/southwest winds aloft will remain over the northeast as 
an upper low moves slowly east across Quebec, and a cold front moves 
rapidly east across New England providing drying. To the west, a 
progressive shortwave trough will move across Montana and ND, providing 
cooling aloft and lift. 

At the surface, a westward continuation of the New England cold 
front will remain quasi-stationary from the Ohio Valley into the 
central/Southern Plains, with ample moisture and instability for 

..southern Kansas and MO into northern OK and Arkansas... 
Areas of storms are likely to be ongoing Thursday morning along the 
primary east-west front, most likely across KS, MO, and Illinois. Heating 
will occur south of this activity and attendant outflow boundaries, 
mainly over OK and AR, removing convective inhibition. Weakly 
veering low-level winds with height beneath 20 kt mean midlevel 
westerlies will favor southeastward-moving clusters of storms, with 
a marginal wind threat. 

..northern High Plains... 
A cold front will move into eastern Montana and Wyoming Thursday afternoon, 
providing convergence as southeast winds ahead of it maintain mid to 
upper 50s f dewpoints. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer as 
well as modest 30 kt deep-layer shear will likely favor mixed storm 
Mode with at least isolated severe hail or wind. Storms will likely 
weaken and/or become elevated overnight as they continue into the 
western Dakotas where capping will exist. 

.Jewell.. 08/20/2019