U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 180731 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0231 am CDT sun Mar 18 2018 

Valid 201200z - 211200z 

..there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
northern Florida... 

..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across much of 
central and northern Florida... 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across far 
southern Georgia into Florida... 

A corridor of severe winds, and perhaps a tornado will be possible 
across parts of northern Florida on Tuesday. 

..synopsis and discussion... 
An upper low will deepen over the southeast as a broad, cyclonically 
curved upper jet develops across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This 
trough will be moving quickly, with rapid cooling aloft 
overspreading the region. At the surface, a cold front will progress 
across southern Georgia and northern Florida during the day, with mid to 
perhaps upper 60s f dewpoints resulting in 1000-1500 j/kg MUCAPE. 
Impressive mean wind speeds will develop with models suggesting 
40-50 kt westerly flow in the 925-850 mb layer. Models are in good 
agreement suggesting storms developing over the eastern Gulf or 
eastern Panhandle early in the day, and peaking during the 15-21z 
time frame. The most likely storm Mode is a qlcs, with both damaging 
winds and perhaps a tornado or two possible. 

.Jewell.. 03/18/2018