U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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acus03 kwns 190827 
swody3 
Storm Prediction Center ac 190827 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0227 am CST sun Nov 19 2017 


Valid 211200z - 221200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
a few thunderstorms are expected over a portion of the Florida 
Peninsula into south Georgia Tuesday, but no severe weather is 
anticipated. 


... 


Tuesday's synoptic pattern will remain dominated by a mean ridge 
over the western states with a downstream trough in the east. The 
southern-stream branch of the upper trough will amplify over the 
western Gulf in wake of a lead shortwave trough forecast to move 
through the Florida Peninsula during the day. Surface response will be 
reflected by evolving area of weak low pressure over the northeast 
Gulf that will redevelop over the Gulf Stream during the evening in 
association with the progression of the lead shortwave trough. A 
quasi-stationary front should persist across the central Florida 
Peninsula. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are expected, 
mainly over the northern half of Florida into southern Georgia within weak 
warm advection regime maximized in advance of the leading shortwave 
trough. Activity should diminish over the by evening as this impulse 
continues east of the peninsula and into the Gulf Stream. 


.Dial.. 11/19/2017 


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