U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 270725 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0225 am CDT sun may 27 2018 


Valid 291200z - 301200z 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
the Central Plains area... 


... 
Strong/locally severe storms are progged across portions of the 
plains on Tuesday. A couple of brief tornadoes may also occur in 
conjunction with Alberto. 


... 
Short-wave troughing ejecting from The Rockies is expected to 
continue northeastward across the central and northern plains day 
3/Tuesday, as a second trough digs southeastward out of the 
northeast Pacific toward the West Coast. 


At the surface, a cold front associated with the advancing western 
upper trough is forecast to shift across the northwestern portions 
of the country, while a combination of ill-defined troughing and 
convective outflow crosses the plains. Farther east, remnants of 
Alberto are forecast to be crossing the Tennessee Valley area, per 
latest NHC forecasts. 


..northern and Central Plains area... 
A complex/uncertain severe-weather forecast is evident across the 
plains, with several episodes of intervening storms to have occurred 
over the region on prior days -- including likelihood for 
widespread/ongoing convection Tuesday morning. 


With flow surrounding the ejecting trough likely to be somewhat 
weaker Tuesday as compared to Monday, and with substantial concerns 
regarding recovery of the airmass after expected/substantial 
overturning, identifying corridors of potentially greater severe 
risk will be largely delayed until future outlooks. 


With that said, greatest potential for airmass recovery/afternoon 
destabilization appears to exist over the Kansas vicinity, on the 
southern portion of the expected zone of the most active/widespread 
day 2 convection. With shear sufficient for organized storms 
anticipated to exist, will highlight a small 15% risk area centered 
over central Kansas, within a broad marginal risk area extending from 
the north-central states to Oklahoma. 


..mid-south/southern Appalachians region and vicinity... 
Remnants of Alberto are forecast to be shifting northward 
into/across the Tennessee Valley Tuesday. While the circulation 
should weaken with time, ample low-level shear will likely persist 
within the northeast quadrant of the system to support a continued 
risk for a couple brief tornadoes. 


.Goss.. 05/27/2018 


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