U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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000 
acus01 kwns 220550 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 220548 


Day 1 convective outlook corr 1 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1248 am CDT sun Sep 22 2019 


Valid 221200z - 231200z 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
the Southern Plains...Ozarks...mid Mississippi Valley and southern 
Great Lakes... 


Corrected for wording 


... 
Scattered storms capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail 
will be possible from the Southern Plains northeastward into the 
southern Great Lakes region this afternoon. 


..Southern Plains/Ozarks/mid Mississippi Valley/southern Great 
Lakes... 
a southwest mid-level flow pattern will be in place today from the 
Great Plains into the Great Lakes as an upper-level trough moves 
across the High Plains. A cold front will advance southeastward into 
the Southern Plains, Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the 
front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s f will contribute 
to some destabilization. This combined with large-scale ascent 
associated with the High Plains upper-level trough will result in 
scattered convective initiation along the moist corridor by 
afternoon. A low-level jet oriented southwest-to-northeast ahead of 
the front will also provide support for convective development. In 
addition to the moist airmass, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast 
to be in place along the front. The shear along with steepening 
low-level lapse rates will support a marginal wind damage threat 
during the mid to late afternoon. Hail will also accompany the 
stronger updrafts. At this point, instability is forecast to be the 
greatest in the Southern Plains where the chance of a marginal 
severe threat appears to be slightly greater than in areas further 
to the northeast. 


.Broyles/Elliott.. 09/22/2019 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


000 
acus11 kwns 220333 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 220332 
moz000-iaz000-nez000-ksz000-220530- 


Mesoscale discussion 2000 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1032 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 


Areas affected...KS...southwest Iowa...northwest MO 


Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 657... 


Valid 220332z - 220530z 


The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 657 
continues. 


Summary...severe threat is gradually shifting east and waning. New 
ww is not anticipated. 


Discussion...isolated severe wind gusts have been noted within the 
last hour along strongest portion of the squall line near cnk. This 
activity is shifting east along the NE/Kansas border and should progress 
east of ww657 in the next 1-2hr as low level jet focuses into this portion of 
the eastern plains. While convection should remain organized, 
overall severe threat appears to be decreasing, especially as 
thunderstorms shift east of the MO river. A new ww is not 
anticipated downstream. 


.Darrow.. 09/22/2019 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...eax...oax...top...ict...Gid...ddc...gld... 


Latitude...Lon 38920084 39799779 41489533 40269485 38699759 38400062 
38920084