U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1126 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 


Valid 141200z - 151200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
a few thunderstorms are expected across Florida into coastal 
portions of the Carolinas. 


..southeastern US... 


Late-evening satellite imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave 
trough over northern Mexico. This feature is expected to be shunted 
east across the northern Gulf as mid-level heights fall over the 
mid-south ahead of a digging trough. In response to this feature, 
weak surface low should develop over the eastern Gulf basin then 
track toward the Florida coast after 15/06z. Initial boundary-layer 
conditions are not that moist/buoyant across the peninsula. The 
modified warm sector that will be drawn north ahead of the surface 
low should struggle to generate appreciable instability prior to 
frontal passage. Even so, scattered thunderstorms are expected to 
develop off the Florida Gulf Coast where instability will be much more 
supportive of robust updrafts. This convection will develop within 
an increasingly sheared environment ahead of the aforementioned 
short wave. Some organization is possible over the warmer Gulf 
waters and this activity will spread toward the Florida coast after 
sunset. However, convection should weaken due to less buoyant air 
mass over land. Current thinking is the threat for severe wind gusts 
will be minimized inland, though gusty winds could be noted with 
storms near the coast. Toward sunrise, surface low should reorganize 
off the northeast Florida coast, and deep convection should focus along a 
southwest-northeast oriented warm front off the Carolinas coast. 


.Darrow/Cook.. 11/14/2019 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 120825 
tnz000-gaz000-alz000-msz000-121230- 


Mesoscale discussion 2148 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0225 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019 


Areas affected...portions of southeast Tennessee...northern Alabama and far 
east-central MS 


Concerning...freezing rain 


Valid 120825z - 121230z 


Summary...rain may transition to freezing rain from far east-central 
MS into northern Alabama and southeast Tennessee for a few hours through early 
morning. 


Discussion...a strong cold front is pushing southeast across the 
southern states early this morning, stretching from western NC into 
northern GA, southeast Alabama and then just offshore coastal MS/la. 
Isentropic ascent over the front is resulting in a broad area of 
mainly Post-frontal showers from southern MS into Alabama and the 
southern Appalachians. Near the back edge of this precipitation, 
temperatures are dropping quickly, with temperatures at or below 
freezing noted as far south as Starkville MS to Huntsville al, and 
some locations have recently reported rain changing to freezing 
rain. As temperatures continue to fall with southeastward extent 
over the next few hours, more locations may see a transition to 
freezing rain for a few hours before precipitation comes to an end 
toward 12z. While ground temperatures will likely remain too warm 
for ice accumulations, elevated surfaces such as bridges and 
overpasses could see light freezing rain accumulation. 


.Leitman.. 11/12/2019 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...mrx...ffc...ohx...bmx...hun...Meg...Jan... 


Latitude...Lon 35658539 35708502 35468491 35158497 34848519 34568549 
33828645 33168754 32528854 32528892 32778919 32968915 
33158895 34638714 35108644 35658539