Stalling Front, Tropical Disturbances to Bring Threat of Heavy Rain to the South Into Next Week

Chris Dolce
Published: August 24, 2019

Heavy rain could trigger flooding in parts of the South through early next week as a stalling front interacts with moisture from a pair of tropical disturbances, including Invest 98L, which is being monitored for a chance of tropical development off the Southeast coast.

Watching For Tropical Development Off Southeast Coast

A weak area of low pressure located just east of the southeastern coast of the Florida Peninsula, tagged Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center Thursday afternoon, is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers.

(MORE: What is an Invest?

This system is forecast to move near or over Florida into early Saturday. When it emerges back over the Atlantic conditions are expected to be conducive for tropical development this weekend or early next week as it moves near the coast of eastern Florida and the Southeast coast.

The National Hurricane Center has given it a high chance of development into a tropical depression or storm during the weekend.

This is nothing to be overly concerned about for now, but it bears watching since we are in what is typically the hurricane season's busiest time of year. We'll provide more updates on weather.com in the days ahead.


National Hurricane Center Potential Development Area

(MORE: There's Something Else We're Watching in the Atlantic

Heavy Rain Across the South

A second area, currently located in the Gulf of Mexico, may need to be watched into early next week. This disturbance is producing an area of thunderstorms, but does not appear to be a tropical threat at this time.

Nonetheless, a flood watch has been issued for parts of the Louisiana and Texas coastline.

These systems combined with a sagging cold front will bring periods of heavy rain into next week. The rain and thunderstorms will likely be more widespread than what the South experiences on a typical summer day.


Current Radar, Watches and Warnings

Rainfall rates of an inch or more per hour are possible in the storms, so flash flooding is possible, particularly if the storms stall over the same area for multiple hours.

Rounds of showers will likely swirl across the Florida peninsula, bringing rounds of heavy rain and gusty winds, due to Invest 98L's close proximity to the sunshine state.

Many areas in the South could see 1 to 2 inches of rain through Tuesday from southern Louisiana into the Carolinas as well as portions of the Florida Peninsula. Localized heavier totals are likely in south Florida, along the southwestern Louisiana coast and near where the frontal boundary stalls.


Rainfall Forecast

Even after the two systems being watched for tropical development dissipate, we may need to watch this frontal boundary or its remnants. These boundaries are known to be a source of tropical cyclone development all by themselves on occasion. These recently occurred with the formation of Tropical Storm Chantal.


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