marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 153 am PDT sun Jul 21 2019
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
Inland trough near northern California will remain weaken and pressure gradient will remain relaxed such that winds will be below gale force threshold and will remain that way most of the forecast period while high pressure will continue to the west of the forecast waters. Just few weak fronts will move east across the northern waters. Latest NCEP weather map now has high pressure weakened to 1029 mb near 35n150w with its east Ward Ridge into the central and southern waters while inland trough is over the north California. Pressure gradient is now relaxed over most of the forecast waters but relatively tight over the north California waters.
Global models at 500 mb have shown a broad upper level ridge that extends north from central Pacific into the waters leaving only the Washington waters and area that is under a weak upper level trough with little energy that will allow surface low pressure to move east across the northern waters. Lapse rates still show a fairly stable atmosphere across the waters and there is still no presence of strong shear across the waters. The synoptic situation will continue through most of the forecast period and so will keep winds below gale force warning and will use GFS.
.Seas...Are still relatively small with a peak at 11 ft over the north California waters. Seas range between 6 and 9 ft over the southern Oregon and California waters W of 120w. Otherwise seas range between 4 and 6 ft over the far southeastern waters and the Washington waters. Nww3 fits very well the seas observations and has been quite consistent with observations in previous runs. Ecmwfwave is also close to the observed seas pattern. In the short term, both wave models have a good agreement on allowing seas to subside over the central waters. Will stay with enp for seas.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster musonda. Ocean prediction center.