marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 731 am PST Wed Feb 21 2018
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
The network issue is beginning to slowly be resolved. The 06z GFS has come in, as well as the CMC and NAM. Hoping that by the next package we will have access to the ECMWF and UKMET.
12z surface analysis indicates an area of low pressure moving se through the California waters. An associated cold front will continue S through the waters through Thursday. An earlier ascat pass was available to view this morning, showing that winds are remaining just below gale throughout the forecast area.
Forecast continues to be be fairly similar as the ridge continues to the W of the waters. A series of shortwaves are still expected to move se across the waters over the next week. Available data are in good agreement throughout, so will begin the grids with the 06z 10m GFS, and switch to the 30m GFS based on stability.
Some gales are expected as the shortwaves pass through tonight, Thursday, and sun and Sun night. Will reduce the extent of the gales sun and dun night with the shortwave moving through as it seems a bit overdone based on new model data.
Overall, the forecast was changed a bit with the new available data, but the headlines will remain mostly the same.
----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...
The network issues remain this morning as most data is not in nawips. Some data however is ingested into gfe including the GFS and CMC. The overall forecast this go round is similar to the past few days as a ridge continues to be anchored W of the waters allowing NW flow and a series of shortwaves to dig se across the waters over the next week. Given the relatively stable pattern and lack of model data I will continue to populate the wind grids using the GFS, either the 10m or 30m given the stability, throughout the forecast period. A moderate chance of a small area of gales remain on Thursday as a shortwave digs se across the region. After the shortwave passes through the California waters the gradient will tighten along the coast as the trough strengthens. This will allow for the possibility of gales across the inner waters of the central California area. Later in the week there is a possibility of gales across the NW pz5 waters as a system passes E across the northern portion.
Seas...I will populate the wave grids using the enp throughout.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz800...inner waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale possible Sunday. .Pzz900...Outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale possible Sunday into Sunday night. .Pzz805...Inner waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale tonight. .Pzz905...Outer waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale possible Sunday night. .Pzz810...Inner waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale tonight. .Pzz910...Outer waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale possible Sunday night. .Pzz815...Inner waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale Thursday.
.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale Thursday into Thursday night. .Pzz825...Inner waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale Thursday night. .Pzz830...Inner waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas... gale Thursday night.
.Forecaster Sommerville/Shaw. Ocean prediction center.