marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 809 am PDT Mon Apr 24 2017
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
The ascat pass from 05z indicates winds along the central California coast 20-30 kt, and over inner offshore waters south of Point Piedras Blancas. At this time I don't anticipate making any changes to the current grids or associated text forecast. I still expect the gradient to increase to gale force late this afternoon or early tonight south of Point Conception. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...
There was an ascat pass at around 0445z and an ascat pass at 0530z with Max winds over the srn CA waters with winds to 30 kt. Elsewhere winds were to 25 kt over the or/nrn CA waters.
At 06z surface analysis maintains a high pressure area to the W of the central and srn CA waters. Low pressure has moved E into the WA/OR waters with a cold front trailing SW through the or/nrn CA waters. As the cold front moves S over the central CA waters and dissipates gales should develop over the inner srn CA waters by early tonight. The low pressure moves E and inland over the or coast later this morning and early afternoon. Winds in association with the low pressure and cold front should have winds to 30 kt this morning...and drop off as the low pressure moves inland. For the srn areas of CA waters gales should become persistent and more widespread later this week as an upper shortwave moves S along the W coast later on Thu and develops and moves S near the srn CA coast Fri and Fri night.
For the grids will favor the GFS initially today through early Wed, then will favor the UKMET/ECMWF which are stronger with the area of high pressure that moves E and approaches the nrn and central areas of the offshore waters Thu into Fri.
Seas... as was done previous will continue to use a blend of the wwiii and ecwmf wam although with a 40/60 blend through the forecast period.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.
.Pz6 California waters... .pzz825...inner waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale possible Friday night. .Pzz830...Inner waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas... gale possible Friday into Friday night. .Pzz835...Inner waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA... gale possible Friday into Friday night. .Pzz840...Inner waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA... gale tonight into Tuesday night. Gale possible Wednesday into Friday night. .Pzz940...Outer waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to 120w... gale possible Wednesday into Friday. .Pzz945...Outer waters from 120w to San Clemente Island, CA... gale possible Wednesday night into Friday.
.Forecaster Shaw/Rowland. Ocean prediction center.