marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 312 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
Low pressure will move northeast near the coast over the waters and that will maintain a tight pressure gradient over the waters in the short term. NCEP weather map has low pressure 1006 mb over the southwestern waters and its warm front stretches east across the southern waters. High pressure 1036 mb over Maine has its ridge into the northern waters.
At 500 mb there is some energy embedded in a deep trough near the Great Lakes that will initially drop down then move northeast and that will result in strengthening low pressure that is moving northeast near the East Coast. In the extended period, models at 500 mb suggest mostly zonal flow across the region and high pressure will dominate the waters.
Global models GFS/CMC/ukmethr/ecmwfhr have initialized well the synoptic surface observations. In the short term, the models just differ slightly on the wind speed as GFS and CMC continue with storm force winds. In the extended period models agree on winds diminishing to below Gale Warning threshold. Will continue with GFS guidance.
.Seas... They are relatively large and they range between 9 and 13 ft over the central and southern waters with a peak at 15 ft over the central waters and they range between 4 and 9 ft over the northern with smaller seas over the northwestern portion. Nww3 model fits well the seas pattern. Ecmwfwave model also generally fits well with the observed seas pattern over the forecast waters. Will use nww3 for seas.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...Both estofs and etss have positive surge along the mid Atlc and New England coasts tonight into Fri due to the strong coastal low that is developing. Estofs has surge values just over 2 ft from the Virginia CAPES to Long Island Sound tonight, and up to 1 ft along the New England coast Fri. The estofs has values that are roughly double the etss which seems a little underdone. Please continue to closely monitor the latest coastal WFO forecasts over the next few days for more information.
.Nt1 New England waters... .anz800...Gulf of Maine... gale tonight into Friday. Gale possible Tuesday night. .Anz805...Georges Bank west of 68w... storm tonight into Friday. Gale possible Tuesday night. .Anz900...Georges Bank east of 68w... gale tonight. Storm Friday. .Anz810...South of New England... storm tonight. Gale Friday. .Anz815...South of Long Island... gale tonight into Friday.
.Nt2 mid-Atlantic waters... .anz820...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon... gale tonight into Friday. .Anz915...Hudson Canyon to the great South Channel... gale tonight into Friday. .Anz920...Baltimore Canyon to the great South Channel... storm tonight. Gale Friday. .Anz905...The great South Channel to the Hague line... gale tonight into Friday night. .Anz910...East of the great South Channel and south of 39n... storm tonight into Friday. Gale Friday night. .Anz825...Inner waters from Baltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light... gale tonight into Friday. .Anz828...Inner waters from Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light... gale tonight into tonight. .Anz925...Outer waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon... storm tonight. Gale Friday. .Anz830...Inner waters from Currituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras... gale tonight into tonight. .Anz930...Outer waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear... gale tonight into tonight.
.Forecaster musonda. Ocean prediction center.