.Marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean .NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 855 am EST Wed 21 Feb 2018
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
Due to significant network problems at NWS/NCEP, model data continues to be more limited than normal. The southwest winds across the northern nt2 and nt1 waters should gradually increase today into tonight as a cold front approaches the coast. Once front slows and stalls across the northern nt2 waters Thu, the winds south of the front should begin to diminish while the easterlies poleward of the front increase. In the medium range, versus yesterdays runs, the 00z/06z GFS did not dig the upper level shortwave trough as far southeast across New England. In addition the most recent runs were somewhat weaker with the triple point development near the northern mid Atlantic and New England coast and associated offshore winds sun/Sun night. Given the uncertainty and without the 00z ECMWF/UKMET, we will be maintaining continuity and keeping winds below gale northeast of the warm front across the nt1 waters late sun/Sun night. The previous wind grids generally look reasonable, and will not be making significant changes with this mornings updates. Not surprisingly, given such a weak pattern, the 00z ww3 appears well initialized with the wave heights across the offshore and coastal waters this morning.
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Still having significant network problems with lack of model guidance and observational data getting into nawips and to a lesser degree into AWIPS for the offshore and high seas areas early this morning.
There was an ascat pass earlier this evening along the eastern areas of the New England waters and also over the western areas of mid Atlantic waters. A stationary front was evident along the Maine coast. Strong winds were to 20 kt over the southern areas of the New England waters and to 25 kt over the far eastern areas of the northern mid Atlantic. Elsewhere along the western Atlantic winds were to 20 kt in S to se flow.
The stationary front near the ME coast early this morning should lift N early today as a cold front approaches the New England waters later this afternoon into tonight. The moderate swly winds to at least 25 kt over the New England into the northern mid Atlantic waters will likely continue into tonight as the cold front moves into the New England waters. Elsewhere strong high pressure E of the mid Atlantic waters this morning will gradually become weaker as it moves further W into the waters through Thu night. Will be using the GFS through late Fri for the grids. Will have winds briefly somewhat stronger to 30 kt over the northern mid Atlantic for late Thu into Thu night near the N wall of Gulf Stream. GFS looks similar to the earlier guidance and will use a 50/50 blend with prior grids through late Fri. For the later on Fri night through the weekend will stay with prior grids with lack of model guidance as developing low pressure and its warm front move NE across the New England waters.
Seas...have not seen any new guidance from the ECMWF. Plan to use the prior grids and blend with the 00z multigrid wwiii through late Fri. Have boosted seas by 15 to 20 % for late Thu into Thu night due to higher winds anticipated. For Fri night through Sun night will stay with prior grids with no changes.
Extratropical storm surge guidance: N/A.
.Nt1 New England waters... None.
.Nt2 mid-Atlantic waters... None.
.Forecaster Clark/Rowland. Ocean prediction center.