For south-east sector of Metarea. VII, prepared by reunion, see area 2 below.
Note: wx observations. ====================== Could all vessels experiencing unexpected, severe wx/sea state please make every effort to report this to saws via cape town radio.
Area 1: ======= forecast valid from 251000 to 261000 utc:
Wind in knots, wave heights in meters. No sea state given if waves less than 3m.
Note the wind speeds quoted here are the expected average speeds. Individual gusts may exceed these values by a factor of up to 1.5. Wave heights are significant wave heights which may be accompanied by individual waves 1.5 to 2.0 times higher. These estimates of winds and waves do not take into account the enhancing effects of the Agulhas Current off the South African East Coast.
Gale force warnings: ==================== 1. Cape east: E to NE 35 in the north-west towards the end of the period.
2. Marion forties east: SW to W 35 in the east for the first half of the period.
Synoptic situation 06:00z: ========================== high 1028 hpa 41s23e. Low 982 hpa 50s45e.
1. Cold front: 33s32e 35s38e 40s44e 45s47e into 50s45e.
Area forecast ============== cape east (32.5s/40s, 20e/50e) wind : S to SW 20 to 30 in the east, otherwise E to se 15 to 25 reaching 30 in the north-west from mid period. It will become E to NE 25 to 35 in the north-west towards the end of the period. Vis : moderate in showers in the north and east, otherwise good. Sea state: 3.5 to 4.5m reaching 5.0m in the south-east, SW swell.
Durban east: wind : NE 10 to 15 in the North-East, otherwise E to se 15 to 25 reaching 30 in the south. Vis : moderate in showers in places. Sea state: 3.0 to 3.5m in the places in the south, SW swell.
Mozambique channel: wind : S to se 15 to 25. Vis : moderate in showers in the north, otherwise good.
Madagascar east: wind : E to NE 15 to 20 in the south-east, otherwise S to se 10 to 20. Vis : moderate in showers and rain in places.
Marion forties east (40s/50s, 35e/50e): wind : SW to W 20 to 30 reaching 35 in the east for the first half of the period. Vis : moderate in showers and rain in the eastern parts for the first half of the period, otherwise good. Sea state: 5.5 to 6.5m, SW to W swell but NW swell in the east at first.
Area 2: ======== marine meteorological bulletin from Meteo-France/La Reunion on area ack (amsterdam-Crozet-kerguelen)
Date: 19/06/25 at 0500utc
Averaged wind speed on Beaufort scale. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here.).
Part 1: warning :
- locally and temporarily storm force 10 over cro. - Strong gale force 9 over cro. - Gale force 8 over wam, cro and ker.
Part 2: general synopsys, 19/06/25 at 0000 UTC :
- high 1027 hpa near 34s/64e, moving eastward 15kt. - Low 989 hpa near 52s/49e moving south-eastward 25/30kt. Associated cold front cf axis: 40s/47e, 47s/58e, 53s/51e.
Part 3: forecast for 24 hours from 25/06/19 at 0600 UTC to 26/06/19 at 0600utc :
Wam (30s/40s,50e/65e) :
Frontal showers then frontal rain and showers in cf over south-western area. Wind: anticlockwise 2/4, increasing north or northwest 5 or 7 locally 8 by south-western ahead the front cf, backing South-West 6/8 behind. Sea: rough to very rough becoming high over southern area. Arriving moderate to heavy SW swell.Visi: poor under precipitations.
Ams (30s/40s,65e/80e) :
Scattered showers. Wind: anticlockwise 3/5 setting up 5/7 over south-western area at end. Sea: high over eastern becoming rough to moderate by western area. Heavy South-West swell becoming moderate and abating.Visi: good.
Cro (40s/50s,50e/65e) :
Frontal rain and showers in cf then showers snow.Wind: north-west 5/7 locally 8 ahead the front, backing westerly 6/8 locally 9 by North-Western behind the front, then becoming clockwise 8/9 locally 10, decreasing SW 6/8 over south-western at end. Sea: rough to very rough, high over south-western. Moderate to heavy South-West swell.Visi: poor or very poor.
Ker (40s/50s,65e/80e) :
Frontal rain and showers in cf over south-western area at end.Wind: South-West 7 or 8 over eastern, setting-up west 3/4 then north-west 5/7 locally 8 by western.Sea: very rough to high. Heavy South-West swell.Visi: poor.