Marine Weather for HS 015

Forecast
weather bulletin for the high seas for Metarea VII east of 20e. Issued by the South African Weather Service on the 23rd of August 2019 at 17:00 UTC.

For south-east sector of Metarea. VII, prepared by reunion, see area 2 below.

Note: wx observations. ====================== Could all vessels experiencing unexpected, severe wx/sea state please make every effort to report this to saws via cape town radio.

Area 1: ======= forecast valid from 232200 to 242200 utc:

Wind in knots, wave heights in meters. No sea state given if waves less than 3m.

Note the wind speeds quoted here are the expected average speeds. Individual gusts may exceed these values by a factor of up to 1.5. Wave heights are significant wave heights which may be accompanied by individual waves 1.5 to 2.0 times higher. These estimates of winds and waves do not take into account the enhancing effects of the Agulhas Current off the South African East Coast.

Gale force warnings: ==================== 1. Marion forties east: N to NW 35 in places by the second half of the period.

Synoptic situation 12:00z: ========================== high 1024 hpa 30s00e high 1028 hpa 37s32e low 990 hpa 51s06w low 974 hpa 58s01w low 972 hpa 62s15e.

1. Cold front: 35s16w 40s07w 45s01e 50s10e 55s17e into 62s15e.

Area forecast ============== cape east (32.5s/40s, 20e/50e) wind : variable 05 to 10 in the extreme east, otherwise W to NW 20 to 30 but N to NE 15 to 25 in the North-Western and central interior. It will become E to NE 05 to 15 in the extreme north, otherwise W to NW 20 to 30 by the second half of the period. Vis : good becoming moderate in fog patches in the north-west towards the end of the period. Sea state: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 4.5m in the south-east, SW swell.

Durban east: wind : SW 15 to 25 in the extreme south-east at first, otherwise E to se 15 to 25 but NE to N 20 to 30 in the extreme west. Vis : moderate in showers and rain in the northern interior. Sea state: 3.0 to 4.0m, becoming 2.0 to 2.5m in the west by the second half of the period, SW swell.

Mozambique channel: wind : S to se 15 to 25, reaching 30. Vis : good. Sea state: 3.0 to 3.0m, reaching 3.5m in the south-east, S to SW swell.

Madagascar east: wind : S to se 15 to 25, reaching 30 but E to NE 10 to 15 in the extreme South-West. Vis : good. Sea state: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south, SW swell but 3.0 to 3.5m in the north, se swell.

Marion forties east (40s/50s, 35e/50e): wind : W to SW 20 to 30 a first. It will become N to NW 20 to 30 reaching 35 in places by the second half of the period. Vis : good, becoming moderate in showers and rain from the west by the second half of the period. Sea state: 3.5 to 4.5m, reaching 5.0 to 7.0m by the first half of the period, W to SW swell.

Area 2: ========

Marine meteorological bulletin from Meteo-France/La Reunion on area ack (amsterdam-Crozet-kerguelen)

Date: 19/08/23 at 1700 UTC

Averaged wind speed on Beaufort scale. (Wind gusts may be stronger than averages given here).

Part 1: warning :

Strong gale force 9 running over ker, gale running over cro, wam and ams.

Part 2: general synopsys, 19/08/23 at 1200 UTC :

- cold front cf 36s/43e, 41s/55e, 45s/62e, 47s/65e, 49s/66e, 52s/64e. - High 1026 hpa near 38s/30e with ridge toward south along 30e, toward crozet's islands the 19/08/24 at 12 UTC.

Part 3: forecast for 24 hours from 23/08/19 at 1800 UTC to 24/08/19 at 1800 UTC :

wam (30s/40s,50e/65e) :

Rain cf. Wind: W to NW 7/8 in east at first, backing SW 6/7 in south soon, decreasing S 4/6 at end. Severe gusts near front. Sea: very rough, locally high over far southeastern, becoming rough in northwest later. SW swell 4m, increasing 5m in south at end. Cross sea in south and east. Visi: poor in cf.

Ams (30s/40s,65e/80e) :

Rain cf in southwest soon. Showers and squalls in southwest later. Wind: NW 7/8 in south, backing SW 4/6 at end. NW to W 4/6 in north. Severe gusts near front. Sea: very rough, locally high in south. SW swell 5 to 6m in south, 4 to 5m in north. Cross sea in south. Visi: poor in precipitations.

Cro (40s/50s,50e/65e) :

Rain cf over far northern part at first, showers and squalls in east. Wind: W to SW 7/8, decreasing SW to W 4/6 in west later, and SW 6/7 in east at end. Violent gusts near front, severe gusts in squalls. Sea: very rough to high. W swell 3 to 4m in south and SW 3 to 4m in north, increasing SW 4 to 5m later. Cross sea in south. Visi: poor in precipitations.

Ker (40s/50s,65e/80e) :

Rain or snow cf, showers and squalls. Wind: NW 7/8 locally 9 in north and in east at first, decreasing W to SW 6/7 soon. Violent gusts near front. Sea: high becoming very rough at end. SW swell 5 to 6m, decreasing 4 to 5m soon, increasing 5 to 6m in west at end. Visi: poor to very poor in precipitations.

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