Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 ktwc 162115
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
215 PM MST sun Jun 16 2019
Synopsis...mostly dry conditions with seasonable daytime heat
Discussion...some shallow boundary layer moisture from the west
and southwest has worked it's way into a patchy cumulus field
this afternoon. No thunderstorms for our area though, with a
little more available moisture north and east of US.
A fairly dull weather pattern as we maintain some form of westerly
flow through the week. This will thin out the occasional lower
level shallow moisture push from the Gulf of California, much
like today. Typical mid June heat for the most part with strong
high pressure off the West Coast as well as over central Mexico.
Just as we try to make a run toward hotter temperatures the second
half of the week, yet another trough through western states will
moderate things back down to about average. Even looking further
south it looks like Sonora will stay fairly quiet through the
period as well.
Aviation...valid through 18/00z.
Scattered-broken clouds at 8k-12k ft mean sea level in the White Mountains northeast of
ksad, along with a slight chance of -tsra/-shra thru 17/05z.
Otherwise, few-scattered clouds at 10k-15k ft mean sea level east of ktus and clear
skies elsewhere. Clear skies expected areawide aft 17/05z, then
increasing high clouds Monday morning/afternoon. Surface wind generally
less than 12 kts thru 17/18z, then southerly/southwesterly at 12-18 kts with gusts
to around 25 kts Monday afternoon. The strongest surface wind will be
east of ktus Monday. Aviation discussion not updated for taf
Fire weather...dry conditions are expected across most of Southeast
Arizona through next Saturday. The exception is a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountains through the evening
hours tonight. Slightly elevated 20-foot south to southwest winds
are expected Monday afternoon across eastern areas, with speeds of
15-20 mph and gusts to around 25 mph. Stronger winds then expected
areawide on Friday, but the strongest winds will be east of a line
from Nogales to Safford. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will generally be
15 mph or less. Expect occasional gusts each afternoon and early
evening due to strong surface heating.