Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 ktwc 130958
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
258 am MST Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis...dry conditions and a warming trend will prevail through
Saturday. A weather system moving north of the area may bring
isolated showers to the White Mountains Sunday into Sunday evening.
Then, expect dry conditions but cooler temperatures early next week.
Slightly warmer temperatures will return next Wednesday and
Discussion...expect fantastic weather with highs in the 60s/70s
through Sunday. During Sunday afternoon, a shortwave will swing
through Arizona with the best energy staying well north of Southeast Arizona.
Nonetheless, a few high elevation snow showers and valley rain
showers will be possible later Sunday afternoon into early Monday
morning across the White Mountains. Otherwise, dry across the
As the system passes to the east, a much cooler airmass will
settle into Southeast Arizona. Expect a chilly start each morning from Monday
morning through Wednesday morning. The coldest morning appears to
be Tuesday with areas in the Tucson Metro in the middle 30s. Will
have to watch closely on how cold areas get around the Metro,
especially along area washes and typical cool spots. To
complicate the temperature forecast, another southeasterly/easterly
wind will set up Tuesday and Wednesday morning. This could help
moderate temperatures during the morning as the winds pick up
each morning. Regarding the wind, it does not appear significant.
The typical early morning to early afternoon gustiness is likely
across wind favored areas like eastern Pima County and portions of
Santa Cruz and western half of Cochise counties. This will also
usher in some much cooler afternoons with highs generally in the
50s south and east of Tucson to the lower to middle 60s for Tucson
and westward for the work week. Some slight moderation is
expected toward next weekend, but a significant warm up is not
anticipated at this time.
Regarding precipitation chances for late next week, there is
still considerable uncertainty. There will likely be a storm
system of some sort, however details are sketchy on the evolution,
strength, and timing. Have some areas of slight chance showers
for now, but expect changes down the Road.
Aviation...valid through 14/12z.
Few-scattered clouds at or above 25k ft mean sea level thru the end of forecast period.
Surface wind variable in direction and less than 12 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for taf amendments.
Fire weather...dry and warmer conditions are expected through
Saturday. A weather system moving across The Four Corners region
will bring some breezy winds Sunday, especially east of Tucson. This
system may also result in isolated rain and snow showers in the
White Mountains. Dry conditions areawide early next week, but with
cooler temperatures. Locally gusty east winds are expected Tuesday
and Wednesday of next week.