Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 ktwc 240925
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
225 am MST Mon Jun 24 2019
Synopsis...high temperatures today back around normal for late
June then gradually getting hotter this week as high pressure
builds over the region. Expect dry weather to continue through
Thursday. Increasing mid level moisture will then move into
eastern areas late in the work week and next weekend, resulting
in a slight chance of high based showers and thunderstorms mainly
along the New Mexico border and White Mountains.
Discussion...another clear night across Southeast Arizona under
westerly flow aloft. Main themes for this week will be gradually
hotter high temperatures as the week progresses, thanks to
building high pressure aloft from the southeast, and moisture
creeping in from the south and east late in the week into next
weekend across far eastern areas. This will bring a slight chance
of afternoon/early evening high based thunderstorms/showers
mainly along/near the Arizona/nm border Friday into the weekend.
Looking into next week, the GFS and European model (ecmwf) have the upper high
centered near The Four Corners region with an easterly wave moving
across Mexico. Starting to get the M look.
Aviation...valid through 25/12z.
Mainly clear skies aside from a few afternoon cumulus clouds near
the higher terrain, with bases around 12-15k ft mean sea level. Light and
variable surface wind except westerly 6-11 kts gusting to 20 kts this
afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments.
Fire weather...dry conditions are expected across most of Southeast
Arizona this upcoming week. However, moisture will be increasing
over the far eastern portion of the state from Friday into the
weekend. This allows for the chance of thunderstorm development
along the New Mexico/Arizona border region each afternoon. Winds
will generally be out of the west to southwest at 15 mph or less
with some afternoon gustiness due to strong solar heating. Haines 6
conditions are forecast east of Benson this afternoon and
Climate...the Tucson Airport has recorded three straight days
with highs below 100 degrees. The last time that this has happened
during the last 10 days of June was in 2004.