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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
328 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Discussion...
oppressive heat and humidity are the main concern in the short
term with current observed heat indices running in the 110-115
range in much of eastern OK and west central Arkansas. Similar
conditions are anticipated Tuesday with no evidence to support a
significant change in temps/dew points. Have upgraded the advisory
to an excessive heat warning for the same areas as today, and
given today's trends also bumped the start time up to noon. An
isolated shower or storms over the terrain is possible both this
afternoon and Tuesday with mesoscale convective system activity remaining to the north.

The good news is that some changes are in store by mid week as the
upper ridge retrogrades just enough with an upper wave diving
through the Great Lakes area to drive a weak cold front toward the
area by Wednesday. This will result in an increase in thunderstorm
chances over at least northern areas by Wednesday and a
substantial cool down at least by Thursday. Areas to the south of
the front Wednesday will remain quite hot and additional
headlines will likely be needed for at least the southern half of
the area.

Precip chances will linger to some degree into the weekend with
temperatures remaining more tolerable. Some potential for heavy
rainfall may exist through Friday at least before the frontal
boundary eventually washes out and drifts back north. Dry
conditions should continue through Monday though another front may
be on the horizon just beyond that.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 78 100 76 95 / 0 0 10 20
fsm 77 99 76 96 / 0 10 0 20
mlc 78 101 76 96 / 0 0 0 10
bvo 75 97 74 92 / 0 0 10 20
fyv 74 95 73 90 / 0 10 10 20
byv 73 95 73 93 / 0 20 0 30
mko 76 96 75 94 / 0 0 0 20
Mio 74 95 73 91 / 0 0 10 20
f10 77 102 76 96 / 0 0 0 10
hhw 77 98 76 96 / 0 10 0 10

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...heat advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for okz049-053-058-063-
068-069.

Heat advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for okz049-053-058-
063-068-069.

Excessive heat warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
okz054>057-059>062-064>067-070>076.

Excessive heat warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for
okz054>057-059>062-064>067-070>076.

Arkansas...heat advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for arz001-010.

Heat advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for arz001-010.

Excessive heat warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for arz019-
020-029.

Excessive heat warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for arz019-
020-029.

&&

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