Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 ktsa 171136
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
536 am CST sun Nov 17 2019
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Previous discussion... /issued 346 am CST sun Nov 17 2019/
upper trough continue to move through the Central Plains this
morning and has resulted in widespread mid and high clouds cover
over the region. Surface obs upstream mostly showing ceilings
above 10 kft and few if any reports of rain reaching the ground.
At the surface a weak cold front extending from central Kansas into
northwest OK, but despite relatively strong forcing with the upper
system, the lack of moisture should limit any precip to a few
sprinkles or very light showers near Kansas and MO borders this
morning. Some clearing this afternoon will allow temps to warm
close to what we saw yesterday despite the front passage.
Another fast moving wave in northwest flow aloft will bring more high
and mid clouds tonight and Monday, but low level downslope
flow should allow temperatures to warm several degrees. The warm
weather continues Tuesday with winds becoming more southerly and
shortwave ridging overhead. By Wednesday a deep trough develops
along the West Coast while a lead shortwave ejects east into the
plains. By this time, enough moisture should return for showers to
develop and spread over the area Wed afternoon and evening, with
isolated thunderstorms also possible. A more significant cold
front will move through behind this wave Thursday bringing cooler
temps and a short break in precip chances.
Still some model differences regarding the eventual ejection of
the southwest U.S. Trough late in the week. For the time being
will keep low precip chances in the forecast Friday and Saturday
in the form of rain.