Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 ktsa 170443 
afdtsa

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1143 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Some patchy fog is forecast overnight at kbvo, krvs and kfyv.
Winds have become calm at these sites with low dewpoint
depression values. Visibility will likely fall into the 3-5sm
range for most of the night, with occasional lower values
possible. Otherwise, light winds will continue for all taf sites
through the forecast period with VFR conditions.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 745 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/

Discussion...

Mid level ridge was centered over the region this evening. Aside
from some passing high clouds, skies will be mostly clear this
evening and overnight. The few isolated showers that developed
during the afternoon have dissipated. See no reason to make any
changes to the going forecast.

Lacy

Previous discussion... /issued 612 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
VFR conditions are expected through the period. There may be some
reduced visibilities into the MVFR category at kbvo or kfyv after
midnight through around sunrise. Winds will be light from the
south or southeast.

Previous discussion... /issued 254 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/

Discussion...
main story the next several days will be ongoing temperatures that
will remain above seasonal averages. Upper high pressure ridge will
remain in control which will result in afternoon temperatures in the lower
to middle 90s across most of the forecast area. Some changes later this
week as tropical moisture associated with an upper disturbance will
advect north. Rain chances from this feature look to hold off across
southeast OK until later in the day Thursday, then and increase some
from south to north towards the end of the week and into the
weekend. Also later in the weekend, a cold front will approach,
but where boundary sets up carries much uncertainty at this time.
Rain chances late in the weekend will focus across the northern
parts of the forecast area with the potential boundary interacting
with lingering tropical moisture. Stayed fairly close to the
National blend of models temperatures, though high temps from
Thursday through the remainder of the forecast cycle will be
cooler given increased cloud cover and areawide rain chances.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 72 94 72 93 / 10 0 0 10
fsm 72 96 73 95 / 10 0 0 10
mlc 70 96 71 95 / 10 0 0 10
bvo 66 93 68 92 / 10 0 0 10
fyv 65 90 66 91 / 10 0 0 10
byv 66 91 67 92 / 10 0 0 10
mko 69 93 70 92 / 10 0 0 10
Mio 69 92 69 92 / 10 0 0 10
f10 70 93 71 93 / 10 0 0 10
hhw 71 96 71 95 / 10 10 0 10

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations