Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 ktsa 201028 
afdtsa

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
428 am CST Wed Nov 20 2019

Discussion...
a windy and warm day is on tap today, with cloudiness increasing
ahead of a lead shortwave that will move into the plains this
afternoon and evening. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible by late afternoon in parts of eastern Oklahoma, with
precipitation coverage and intensity expanding eastward this
evening.

Behind the lead shortwave, a relative lull in precipitation will
occur late tonight and Thursday morning. A cold front will enter
northeast Oklahoma early Thursday and push slowly southeast across
the area.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will once again increase in
coverage and intensity across the area late Thursday and Thursday
night as the main upper level storm system approaches from the
west. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially closer
to the frontal boundary from southeast Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas. The rain will be ending from west to east Friday
afternoon and early evening. Temperatures Friday will be much
cooler due to clouds and rain.

After a chilly start to the weekend, warmer temperatures will
return by Sunday afternoon and continue through at least Monday.
The potential exists for a significant storm system to affect the
plains by around Tuesday of next week, but models diverge greatly
on this, so we will just have to wait and see what impacts, if
any, will be felt in our area.

Stayed relatively close to the National blend of models forecast
throughout the forecast period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 70 60 67 39 / 40 100 40 70
fsm 73 59 72 49 / 10 50 80 90
mlc 71 62 69 42 / 10 80 80 90
bvo 69 56 65 37 / 50 100 20 60
fyv 68 58 68 42 / 10 90 70 80
byv 70 59 68 41 / 0 70 60 80
mko 71 60 68 41 / 20 70 60 80
Mio 70 58 66 38 / 20 80 50 60
f10 70 61 68 40 / 20 90 60 80
hhw 73 63 70 49 / 0 80 90 90

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations