Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 ktsa 211124
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 am CDT sun Jul 21 2019
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Scattered thunderstorms may move into parts of northeast OK and
northwest Arkansas later tonight, along with a wind shift to the north-
northeast. Coverage of storms tonight is expected to diminish
some as they move into parts of the area from KS/MO. Cigs to
remain VFR in thunderstorms with a period of MVFR vsbys, therefore
will include prob groups. Outside of convection, VFR taf elements
to prevail at all sites through the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 313 am CDT sun Jul 21 2019/
extensive convection this morning north and west of the forecast
area will not directly impact the area however some debris cloud
may work across the area. This raises some uncertainty in high
temps compared to recent days, otherwise much of NE OK will be
within the thermal axis ahead of the advancing cold front this
afternoon supportive of triple digit highs in a few locations.
Afternoon dewpoints continue to trend Above All available
guidance and adjustments for recent biases yields another
afternoon of widespread 105-110 heat index values. Various OK
mesonet sites have briefly exceeded heat warning criteria the last
few days across NE OK and today also remains a possibility,
however duration and magnitude of any 110+ values remains quite
variable and the current advisory seems appropriate at this point.
Cold front on track to pass through the forecast area tonight
through mid day Monday. Highest precip chances will be across far
east OK / western Arkansas. Any stronger storms which develop during the
evening across southern Kansas / western MO will be trending weaker
with southern extent into the area, and a brief window for severe
weather potential being the likely outcome for northern portions
of the forecast area. The Post frontal airmass will bring
seasonably cool and dry conditions which will prevail through the
work week and this tranquil state reflected within the National
blend of models.
OK...heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
Arkansas...heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening