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fxus64 ktsa 211040 
afdtsa

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
540 am CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
IFR to MVFR conditions will be common at the northwest
Arkansas taf sites for the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR
conditions can be expected.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 325 am CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/

Discussion...
cool/dry conditions expected over the next couple of days behind
a cold front that moved through the area overnight. High
temperatures will likely remain slightly below normal through
Tuesday before warming back into the 70s on Wednesday.

Another strong upper trough will move out of the northern rockies
on Wednesday with main vort lobe passing just east of The Four
Corners region. This will push another cold front into the area
Wednesday night into Thursday with areas of rain and a few
embedded thunderstorms spreading over much of the region
along/behind frontal boundary. GFS remains much more progressive
with system compared to the ECMWF, which develops cutoff low
over western Texas by Friday. Generally stayed with the nbm
during this time, which is a good blend of the two solutions
concerning temperatures Friday into Saturday. Also held on to
low chance pops through Saturday given the current uncertainties
into the weekend.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 69 41 67 47 / 0 0 0 0
fsm 70 43 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
mlc 71 41 69 46 / 0 0 0 0
bvo 67 37 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
fyv 65 38 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
byv 67 42 63 45 / 0 0 0 0
mko 68 40 67 46 / 0 0 0 0
Mio 66 39 64 44 / 0 0 0 0
f10 70 41 69 46 / 0 0 0 0
hhw 71 43 70 46 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

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