Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 ktsa 221732
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1232 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Cold front may be a focus for renewed convective development this
afternoon. The cold front has pushed south of a line from
Kemp/kict/kgag as of midday. Occasional MVFR ceilings will persist
for kbvo/ktul/krvs this afternoon, with the potential for
thunderstorms through late afternoon. There will be a chance for
storms for the Arkansas terminals and kmlc, but it will be a bit later,
from late afternoon through early evening. Gusty winds and
MVFR/IFR conditions may accompany any storms. Kbvo has the best
potential for clearing tonight, and if clouds diminish behind the
front, fog will be possible. Low to mid clouds will likely persist
for the rest of the terminals through the overnight hours.
Previous discussion... /issued 942 am CDT sun Sep 22 2019/
heavy rain axis this morning extends from Nowata southwest to
Pawnee and Stillwater. Radar and lightning trends would suggest
this activity will gradually diminish through late morning, as the
low level jet weakens. Some locations have picked up over 2" of
rain in the last 3 hours, including Wynona and Nowata per mesonet
observations. Widespread mid clouds will spread east into
northwest Arkansas and east central Oklahoma, but some of these
areas will continue to see some sun this morning. Temps are near
80 in Fort Smith and Sallisaw already this morning, in mainly
cloud free areas.
Synoptic cold front is located across north central into
southwest Kansas from Salina to just south of Dodge City. There is
the possibility that convection will redevelop along and ahead of
the boundary as it makes its way southeast. If it does, there is
a potential for some strong/severe storms given strong wind fields
and a very moist boundary layer. Heavy rain threat and localized
flooding potential will continue through the morning, mainly north
and west of Interstate 44.
Updated forecast incorporates latest observational data and
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for okz054>056-059.