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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Topeka Kansas
1151 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019

..update to aviation forecast discussion...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 249 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019

Deep subsidence was in place over the Central Plains early this
morning behind the exiting longwave trough with 1042 mb surface
high pressure centered over eastern Kansas per 08z objective
analysis. After continuing to fall early Monday evening,
temperatures have been fairly steady in recent hours and current
record low values may be safe. Skies remain fairly clear today and
much of tonight as upper flow backs to a more zonal character
ahead of the next shortwave moving into the northern plains from
the northwest. 850 mb flow in turn backs to the west-southwest
with strong warm advection resulting but the anomalously-cold
anticyclone keeps mixing depths limited and highs should only
reach the upper 20s to upper 30s, warmer in the west. Overnight
temps tonight again look to be fairly steady though much warmer
under a 30-40 knot low-level jet and surface winds brining wind
chills back down in the single digits and teens.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 249 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019

The aforementioned trough brings fairly strong upper dynamics
through central and eastern Kansas Wednesday into Wednesday night
though instability, frontogenetic response, and moisture of any
consistent depth remain lacking for anything more than trace
amounts to fall, and this should be limited to far northern areas
in the afternoon. Southwest winds increase somewhat ahead of the
associated cold front and with dry air in place, fire weather
parameters will need to be watched in southern and eastern
locations with some elevated though not extreme values possible.
Temperatures Wednesday should be 15 to 20 degrees above today's
values despite increasing cloud cover with only slightly cooler
highs Thursday in the influence of a much less impressive high
pressure cell.

A more zonal pattern sets up for Friday and Saturday with
temperatures back to near mid-November normals. The next upper
trough passing around Sunday continues to lack to impress in
intensity or available moisture quality. Some potentially above
normal temps are possible Monday in a more impressive downslope
regime.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1136 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all taf sites.
Winds are the main impact to aviation as they should pick up to
7-15 kts this afternoon. Have maintained the mention of low level wind shear
overnight as guidance shows a modest llj; however, it could be
weaker than currently forecast if winds turn breezier at the
surface.

&&

Climate...
issued at 200 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Record lows for 11/12
----------------------

Topeka: 7 (1911)
concordia: 4 (1911)

&&

Top watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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