Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 ktop 142002 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Topeka Kansas
302 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Upper trough over the northern rockies will continue to push east-
southeast into the Great Lakes by late Tuesday afternoon with an
associated cold front passing late tonight into Tuesday morning.
Norman, Dodge City, and Amarillo 12z soundings this morning
depict a very dry lower troposphere with afternoon mixing bringing
dewpoints into the upper 20s to upper 30s in the Texas Panhandle
and adjacent portions of Oklahoma. Southerly near-surface winds
may bring some stratus into southern and eastern locations
tonight but this will still be well capped per all guidance. Still
may see some very light precip in the form of drizzle or
sprinkles in far southern locations early Tuesday morning but deep
moist convection seems very unlikely. The pre-frontal mixing
should keep temps in the 50s in east-central Kansas though good
cold air advection behind the front keeps much of a rise in check for Tuesday
with upper 50s to mid 60s expected to be the peak area-wide.

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Downslope-modified Canadian surface ridge builds in Tuesday night
into Wednesday for what should be the coolest periods of this
forecast with highs in the mid 50s to around 60 Wednesday afternoon.
Steady southerly flow Wednesday night into Friday brings temps back
to near to somewhat above normal as the next upper trough enters the
western states. An initial modest shortwave Ushers an even more
modified cold front through Friday night with again only minor
precip potential, and again moisture depths will be an obstacle to
thunder chances. Recent GFS and European model (ecmwf) runs have been similar with
this boundary stalling not far to the south with the next, more
potent upper trough deepening over the region Sunday into Monday,
however there are notable differences in this trough's intensity
and speed. Early weekend periods may remain dry with greater
chances Sunday into early Monday with severe storm potential
something to be monitored over the next several days. Temperatures
Saturday into Monday should be slightly cooler though confidence
in specifics is low.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z tuesday)
issued at 1148 am CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Main concern is with forecast moisture advection overnight ahead
of the next frontal passage. NAM and rap forecast soundings Show Low levels
potentially saturating. Given decent winds above the boundary
layer and decent mixing, think stratus is more likely over fog.
For now the majority of the solutions keep this low level
saturation just south of foe. But there does appear to be some
potential for IFR ceilings for a couple hours ahead of the frontal passage.
Confidence is not high enough to bring them into foe or top, but
later shifts will need to monitor trends. There also looks to be
several hours of low level wind shear as the low level jet strengthens this


Top watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations