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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Topeka Kansas
531 am CST sun Nov 17 2019

..update to aviation forecast discussion...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 343 am CST sun Nov 17 2019

As of 09z Sunday morning, a neutrally tilted midlevel trough was
positioned across the central and northern plains. An attendant
surface trough extended from near international fall, Minnesota, southward
through Manhattan into West Texas. Regional radar suggests widespread
rainfall is ongoing across much of eastern KS, although a plethora
of dry low level is resulting in virga rather than rain showers. The
combination of modest warm air advection and wet-bulbing could result in a few
showers/sprinkles, mainly across east-central KS, where warm air advection will be
most prolonged prior to the fropa. Any rainfall accumulation will be
minimal if any at all. The overcast skies have yielded mild
temperatures in the 40s to near 50 area-wide. These temperatures
should remain near-steady through sunrise. Skies will clear quickly
by late morning as the midlevel trough progresses eastward, setting
the stage for a pleasant fall day. Boundary layer mixing heights are
progged to be nearly uniform across the forecast area -- near 850-
825 mb -- which translates to afternoon highs in the mid to upper
50s. Northwest winds will be 10-15 kt with occasional gusts near 20
kts. Surface ridging will traverse the County Warning Area overnight, shifting winds
from the northwest to the southwest at 5-10 kt. Overnight lows will
range from the mid to upper 30s.

Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 343 am CST sun Nov 17 2019

In the wake of the midlevel trough that is currently traversing the
cwa, northwest midlevel flow will ensue by Monday. Model solutions
continue suggest a weak, midlevel shortwave trough will translate
across the area Monday afternoon. In addition, an attendant, weak
surface front will push through the area. Similar to today's fropa,
little in the way of precipitation is expected along with little
cold air advection. In-fact a noticeable temperature increase is expected Monday
afternoon as highs reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. Continued
warming is expected into Tuesday as a stronger Lee trough develops
as the closed midlevel low across the southwestern US approaches the
plains. Temperatures will reach the 60s area-wide Tuesday afternoon.
Dry conditions are expected to persist through midweek.

Rain chances will increase significantly late Wednesday into Thursday
as the aforementioned midlevel low translates the plains as an open
wave. Lapse rates may steepen enough for a few thunderstorms late
Wednesday, although severe weather is not expected. Rainfall amounts
are likely to range from 0.25-0.75" across the forecast area. Drier
and cooler weather will settle in for Thursday and Friday as surface
ridging builds into the region. This dry period will likely be short-
lived as a secondary midlevel low is progged to eject into the
plains late next week into the weekend. Depending on its exact
track, sufficient cold air could be in place for wintry
precipitation. Stay tuned.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 530 am CST sun Nov 17 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. Northwest
winds will increase to 10-15 kts by 15z with occasional gusts up
to 20 kts. Winds will become light and variable after 23z.


Top watches/warnings/advisories...


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