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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Topeka Kansas
626 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

..update to aviation forecast discussion...

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

As of 20z Monday afternoon, an expansive midlevel ridge continues to
reside across the eastern 2/3rds of the Continental U.S. With troughing in the
west. Midlevel water vapor reveals a shortwave trough lifting
northeastward across northwestern NE resulting in scattered showers.
At the surface, a broad trough was positioned across the High Plains
from eastern nm through the western Dakotas. The benign weather
pattern is expected to continue through Tuesday with temperatures
remaining well-above average. Overnight lows tonight will reach the
70s with highs Tuesday afternoon in the 90s. Coupling the heat with
the high humidity will yield an another day with heat indicies in
the upper 90s.

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Transitioning into the extended period, a few thunderstorms are
possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a shortwave
trough ejects across the northern plains shunting the aforementioned
surface trough into southern NE before stalling. Another round of
showers/storms are possible late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning along the stalled frontal boundary across far northern
Kansas/southern NE. Better chances for thunderstorm activity arrive
this weekend as the main midlevel trough ejects across the
northern plains, shunting the surface frontal boundary into the
area. Temperatures look to remain well-above average through much
of the weekend with highs in the 80s and 90s. The previously
mentioned cold front will likely result in closer-to-normal
temperatures with highs in the low 80s by Sunday.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Winds south southeast less than 10 kts will become south around
11 kts by 15z. Expect some higher gusts near mhk after 16z around
20 kts to 23 kts from the south. VFR conditions are expected
through the period.


Top watches/warnings/advisories...

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