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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Topeka Kansas
1131 am CST Fri Nov 15 2019

..update to aviation forecast discussion...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 335 am CST Fri Nov 15 2019

As of 09z Friday morning, the midlevel flow across the plains was
transitioning from northwest flow to zonal as a ridge axis traverses
the central and northern rockies. At the surface, a broad ridge axis
extended from the Southern Plains through the mid-MS River Valley.
On the western periphery of the surface ridge, southerly flow has
returned across the High Plains -- as the ridge progresses east,
southerly flow will return across the forecast area by afternoon.
Southerly flow will be enhanced by a deepening Lee trough across the
High Plains as a midlevel trough encroaches the northern rockies.
Consequently, southerly winds may gust upwards of 25 miles per hour this
afternoon, especially across central and north-central KS, where the
low level jet Max is expected. Temperatures look to be quite comfortable
today. Boundary layer mixing heights are progged to range from 900
mb to 875 mb, yielding surface temperatures in the mid 50s to near
60 this afternoon. Temperatures should be warmer tonight as a
strengthening surface pressure gradient will allow for the
boundary layer to remain coupled -- overnight lows are expected to
range from the upper 20s in far eastern Kansas to the mid 30s in north
central Kansas.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 335 am CST Fri Nov 15 2019

Midlevel cloud cover is expected to further increase through the
night into Saturday as the aforementioned approaches the Central
Plains. Another beautiful fall day is expected Saturday with
afternoon highs in the mid 50s to near 60. Transitioning into
Saturday night and Sunday, a few sprinkles or rain showers are
possible across far eastern Kansas early Sunday morning as the
aforementioned midlevel trough swings through the region. Any
rainfall accumulation is expected to be a few hundredths at most.
Temperatures will once again be in the 50s to near 60 Sunday
afternoon. The first half of next week looks quiet as midlevel
ridging dominates the Central Plains. Precipitation chances are
likely to increase for the latter half of the week as a closed
midlevel low approaches the Southern Plains. Otherwise
temperatures look to remain quite mild with afternoon highs in the
50s and 60s.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1117 am CST Fri Nov 15 2019

VFR conditions will prevail at the taf sites through the period.
Southerly winds will continue this afternoon and may be near 10
kts at times, especially toward mhk, but should generally stay
under 10 kts. Marginal low level wind shear is possible overnight/early tomorrow
morning, but these conditions look more likely toward central Kansas
and may not reach thresholds so will hold off on introducing into
the tafs at this time.

&&

Top watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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