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fxus65 ktfx 141736 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls Montana
1030 am MST Thu Nov 14 2019

Updated aviation section.

very minor updates made this morning to the upcoming gusty winds
across parts of northcentral Montana tonight through Friday, as well
as with a quick update to the current temperatures for today.
Increased the gusty winds slightly along the northern Rocky
Mountain front, and brought them up a few hours earlier during the
day Friday. -Tp



Areas of fog will be found this morning, mainly across portions
of the hi-line. Dry conditions with near normal temperatures are
then expected for today. Warming temperatures and breezy
conditions will then be found for Friday, with perhaps some shower
activity in the evening hours. This weekend will then see
scattered shower activity, with continued mild temperatures, and
perhaps breezy to windy conditions at times.


updated 1030 am MST thur Nov 14 2019 (14/18z taf period)

VFR conditions are expected through the taf period, with a small
potential for fog to redevelop along the milk River Valley (khvr)
tonight. If fog were to redevelop over this area overnight, there is
potential for MVFR to IFR conditions under the redeveloped fog.
Meanwhile the remainder of the area will see VFR conditions with
increased mid level clouds. Some areas along the Rocky Mountain
front and adjacent High Plains could also see increased winds and
perhaps some low level windshear late tonight into Friday morning.


Previous discussion...
/issued 451 am MST Thu Nov 14 2019/

Today through Saturday night...some areas of fog continue to be
found this morning across the region, mainly across the milk and
Missouri River valleys. Although not quite as widespread as
perhaps initially thought of, will continue the dense fog advisory
through at least the morning commute for current areas. After fog
diminishes later this morning weak ridging will be found across
the area today. The result will be mainly dry conditions and
temperatures continuing to be near to slightly above normal. The
mentioned ridge moves eastward and leaves the area with westerly
zonal flow for Friday. This will further warm temperatures and
bring breezy conditions to the area. The high wind potential for
Friday is fairly limited, although wind gusts over 40 mph along
the Rocky Mountain front are possible for Friday afternoon. A push
of moisture may then bring some scattered shower activity Friday
evening. A weak upper level disturbance may then bring another
round of showers Friday night through Saturday morning. Snow
levels may briefing lower to around 4000 feet with this
disturbance, although snow accumulations at this point appear to
be light. Brief ridging then ends precip Saturday afternoon with
temperatures once again near normal. Strong westerly flow then
returns Saturday night. Winds appear to be stronger with this
second push of westerly flow and may need to be monitored for any
high wind potential. These winds will also bring mild temperatures
for Saturday night, and perhaps some upslope precip along the
Rocky Mountain front. Anglin

Sunday through Thursday...strong westerly flow will continue for
Sunday bringing breezy to windy conditons and warming
temperatures. Moisture in this westerly flow could also provide
for some scattered showers on Sunday, with snow levels remaining
fairly high and above Mountain Pass levels. Next week still has
the potential for some active weather, although uncertainty
remains. Monday at the moment appears to be fairly quiet as
perhaps a ridge of high pressure settles in. Tuesday through
Wednesday then still look to have potential for periods of rain
switching to snow. Uncertainty still remains though as models are
struggling to resolve the split energy type setup this next system
may bring. Overall these systems will need to be monitored,
especially for Tuesday night into Wednesday when perhaps enough
cold air could produce some widespread snow. There are then
indications Thursday may return to a dry pattern with some cooler
temperatures in the wake of the previous days disturbance.
Generally, Sunday and Monday look to be the warmer days of the
extended, with temperatures cooling by mid week. Anglin


Preliminary point temps/pops...
gtf 49 37 58 35 / 0 0 10 20
ctb 43 33 51 32 / 0 0 0 30
hln 48 29 53 34 / 0 10 0 20
bzn 49 26 54 30 / 0 0 0 40
wey 42 19 45 23 / 0 0 0 40
dln 51 29 56 30 / 0 0 0 20
hvr 37 24 46 30 / 0 0 0 30
lwt 45 32 55 34 / 0 0 0 20


Tfx watches/warnings/advisories...
dense fog advisory until 10 am MST this morning Blaine...

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