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fxus62 ktbw 231905 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
305 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019

.Discussion (tonight-next monday)...
Mid/upper level ridging will hold over Florida through much of the
week with an inverted trough/low drifting west toward the
peninsula during the weekend. Meanwhile at the surface high
pressure will generally remain across the area with an east to
northeast flow across the region, except shifting to onshore with
the sea breeze through Thursday. Late in the week into early next
week the east to northeast flow will increase as the gradient
tightens with breezy conditions returning. Overall moisture
remains very limited into Thursday and Friday. There may be enough
moisture when combined with the sea breeze and daytime heating to
pop a couple of showers over the northern parts of the Nature
Coast Thursday and over southwest Florida Friday. Over the weekend
slightly more moisture will overspread the entire region leading
to isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening convection
each day.


VFR conditions are expected with northeast to north winds through
the forecast period. Winds this afternoon will be between 8 and 12
knots this morning with some higher gusts, especially at pgd, fmy
an rsw. Winds will then diminish after sunset and become light and
variable overnight.


high pressure will hold across the waters through the week with
wind speeds diminishing. Speeds could be around 15 knots tonight,
otherwise speeds will remain less than 15 knots with a shift to
north and northwest near the coast most afternoons through
Thursday. Late in the week through the weekend winds and seas will
increase once again back to exercise caution, possibly advisory
levels at times.


Fire weather...
sufficient low level moisture will keep relative humidity values
above critical levels through the period with no red flag
conditions expected. No significant fog is expected.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 71 90 73 91 / 0 0 0 0
fmy 70 89 71 90 / 0 0 0 0
gif 69 92 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
srq 70 89 71 90 / 0 0 0 0
bkv 63 91 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
spg 75 89 76 91 / 0 0 0 0


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.

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