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fxus62 ktbw 071926 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
226 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

a weak area of low pressure over the northeast Gulf this afternoon
will gradually wash out through Sunday as surface high pressure
builds down the eastern Seaboard. A few isolated showers will be
possible over the northern Gulf waters and over Levy County early
tonight, otherwise pleasant dry weather is expected through Sunday
with moderating temperatures. Temperatures tonight will be milder
than previous nights with overnight lows in the lower to mid 50s
across the Nature Coast, mid to upper 50s central and south
interior locations, and lower 60s along the immediate coast.

During Monday and Tuesday high pressure from the Atlantic
extending southwest across the Central Peninsula will maintain
dry weather with warmer temperatures. Another upper level trough
and attendant cold front will approach from the west Tuesday night
with the front moving south through the region during Wednesday
and Wednesday night as a weak area of low pressure rides along it
from the Gulf. Sufficient moisture should support some scattered
showers along and ahead of the front as it moves into the region,
before it stalls out across the south-Central Peninsula on

Now during Thursday night into Friday models Show Low pressure
developing over the central Gulf of Mexico ahead of a potent upper
level trough which will be diving southeastward into the western
Gulf from the Southern Plains with the upper trough and surface low
then tracking east-northeastward across the northern Gulf Coast
and northern Florida Peninsula during Friday night, and then up
along the mid Atlantic coast on Saturday.

As the low develops the remnant stalled frontal boundary across
the south Central Peninsula will lift back to the north as a
warm front. As this occurs deeper moisture will be drawn northward
into the forecast area on a deep layered south to southwest wind
flow. This moisture combined with increasing large scale lift and
good dynamic support aloft will lead to increasing rain chances
area-wide with the possibility of some isolated storms as well
through Saturday as these features affect the area.

Warming temperatures can be expected tonight through early next
week with overnight lows moderating into the 50s and 60s from
north to south with daytime highs in mid to upper 70s on Sunday,
and then lower to mid 80s Monday through Wednesday. Cooler
temperatures will return Thursday through Saturday in the wake of
the front and low pressure system.


VFR will prevail. Light northeast to east winds will continue the
remainder of the afternoon except becoming west-northwest at 5 to
7 knots at the coast sites as a weak onshore sea breeze component
develops. Northeast to east wind at 5 knots or less are expected
after 02z tonight, then becoming onshore again at the coastal
sites during Sunday afternoon.


a weak area of low pressure over the northeast Gulf this afternoon
will gradually wash out through Sunday as surface high pressure
builds down the eastern Seaboard. The high will move east into the
Atlantic early next week with the ridge axis extending back to
the southwest across the central waters with a light southeast to
southerly wind flow expected. A cold front will move into the
northern waters on Wednesday, and into the south-central waters
Wednesday night where it will eventually stall out through
Thursday. As the front move into the area increasing winds and
seas are expected, with a period of cautionary or advisory level
conditions likely by late Wednesday into Thursday with some rough
boating conditions developing for small craft operators.


Fire weather...
humidity values are forecast to remain above critical levels into
early next week with no fire weather hazards expected.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 60 79 62 79 / 10 10 0 0
fmy 60 80 62 81 / 10 10 0 0
gif 59 80 59 82 / 10 10 0 0
srq 59 80 63 80 / 10 10 0 0
bkv 55 80 58 80 / 10 10 0 0
spg 62 76 64 77 / 10 10 0 0


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.

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