Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 240718
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
318 am EDT Sat Aug 24 2019
across the southern Florida Peninsula a weak area of low pressure
remains in place. Cyclonic flow around this feature will keep
much of the area in an NE flow today. Similar to yesterday, drier
air looks to suppress afternoon convection somewhat, especially
north of I-4. Across far southern portions of the area, closer to
the low, more moisture should be present which will allow for pops
in the 40-60 range.
On Sunday the low will begin to move further north with a light
northerly flow over the region. Highest moisture will be present
across the space coast so rain chances again for much of the area
should remain scattered in nature...highest inland. The low
pressure area will begin to move away from the region Sunday
night and into Monday.
The departing system will create southwest flow on Monday and with
ample moisture present expect morning showers/thunderstorms
gradually migrating inland throughout the day. Through mid week,
west to northwest flow will be countered by broad cyclonic flow
and ample moisture, allowing for rather sporadic rain chances each
day. By Thursday into Friday, a tropical upper tropospheric
trough (tutt) will be moving westward across Cuba. While this
upper level feature will be well to our south, some enhancement at
the lower levels may induce a weak area of low pressure along a
frontal boundary and bring an increase in pops as we end the work
week. Otherwise, temperatures will be near average for this time
of year but daily cloud cover and precipitation activity will
dictate temperatures by a few degrees.
VFR conditions expected through the rest of the morning and into
early afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop during the afternoon, causing brief periods of
MVFR/IFR conditions as storms move over individual terminals.
a weak area of low pressure will linger over South Florida this
weekend, setting up light northerly winds over the coastal waters.
As the low lifts north and high pressure ridges into the southern
Gulf of Mexico, winds will shift to westerly and southwesterly
during the first half of next week. Winds will generally remain less
than 15 knots with seas of no more than 2 feet, although daily
thunderstorms will create locally hazardous boating conditions.
sufficient low level moisture will keep relative humidity values
above critical levels through the week with no red flag conditions
expected. No significant fog is expected through the period.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 92 76 92 77 / 30 20 20 30
fmy 92 76 92 77 / 50 20 20 30
gif 93 75 94 76 / 40 10 50 20
srq 92 76 91 77 / 20 20 20 30
bkv 93 74 93 74 / 30 10 30 30
spg 91 76 92 77 / 20 20 20 30