Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

FXUS62 KTBW 171445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
945 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

The thick cloud cover continues to overstay its welcome in
Florida. Most models show the clouds breaking up after sunrise, 
however satellite begs to differ showing the thick cloud 
remaining over the area with no sign of breaking up. TBW skew-t 
is also showing the thick stratus deck between 1500 to 2000 feet 
deep. It will take a while to break up a deck that thick so expect
the overcast skies through the rest of the morning with a slow 
break out of the clouds in the afternoon. The rest of the forecast
looks to be on track. 


.Prev Discussion... /issued 654 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019/ 

MVFR/local IFR ceilings will persist for the next couple of hours
then are expected to gradually thin out and lift after sunrise 
with VFR conditions returning by midday. Northerly winds will 
remain at 7 to 11 knots through today then diminish to around 5 
knots after sunset.

Prev Discussion... /issued 315 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019/ 

DISCUSSION (Today-Next Saturday)...
The mid/upper level low and associated surface low pressure off
the southeast U.S. coast will continue to drift away from the area
today with weak high pressure building in from the northwest. The
low clouds will gradually thin out and lift during this morning
with partly to mostly sunny skies expected this afternoon. The
next mid/upper level trough and associated short wave energy will
move into the eastern U.S. Monday into Tuesday, but moisture will
be rather limited so only expecting some clouds across the area and
possibly a few showers south of Tampa Bay, mostly over the coastal
waters. This system will reinforce the cool dry conditions with
temperatures remaining below normal through midweek. Some weak 
mid/upper level ridging will setup over Florida during the second
half of the work week with surface high pressure moving across 
the southeast states bringing fair dry weather and temperatures 
back closer to normal. Next weekend the models continue to depict
different timing related to a cutoff low and associated surface 
low pressure system moving out of the Desert Southwest with the 
GFS about 24 hours faster than the ECMWF. Either way it looks like
some moisture will return as we get on the back side of the high
moving out into the western Atlantic Ocean with a cold front
crossing the region bringing the chance of a few showers.

The area of low pressure off the southeast U.S. coast will
continue to move away from the area today with winds and seas 
gradually subsiding. High pressure will build over the waters and 
hold over the region through much of the upcoming week with rather
benign conditions expected. 

Some drier air will continue to filter into the area, but minimum
relative humidity values will remain above critical levels through 
the week with no Red Flag conditions expected. No significant fog
is forecast for the next few days.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  68  55  73  58 /   0   0   0  10 
FMY  72  56  76  59 /   0   0   0  10 
GIF  69  53  73  55 /   0   0   0   0 
SRQ  70  55  74  57 /   0   0  10  10 
BKV  67  48  72  49 /   0   0   0   0 
SPG  69  60  72  62 /   0   0  10  10 


FL...High Rip Current Risk until noon EST today for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal 

Gulf waters...None.


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations