Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 ktbw 251810 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
210 PM EDT sun Aug 25 2019


The invest area which has been loitering around the peninsula the
last few days will not pose a threat to west central and
southwest Florida as it moves by the Carolinas this evening. The
departing low will result in a pattern shift to southwest low-
level flow by tomorrow. Winds will gradually veer to the west and
then northwest by Thursday as building surface high pressure to
our south begins to erode and slide west in the central Gulf. With
precipitable water values staying a couple tenths on either side of 2 inches,
expect morning showers/thunderstorms to migrate inland through the
day. The pop climatology for west and northwest 1000-700mb winds
will be countered by broad cyclonic flow and ample moisture,
allowing for rather sporadic rain chances each day. A tropical
upper tropospheric trough, Aka TUTT, is still expected to move
west around the southern periphery of an upper level ridge.

By Thursday into Friday, the subtle remnants of a disturbance
which is currently bringing heavy rainfall to the central Gulf
states will traverse eastward off the Georgia/NE Florida coast.
This low will retrograde back west across the peninsula into the
eastern Gulf as a broad surface trough. Meanwhile, a tropical
upper tropospheric trough (tutt) will be moving westward across
Cuba. While this upper level feature will be well to our south,
this may help to provide some support for enhancement of rainfall
across our area of the and bring an increase in pops as we head
into the weekend. Of course, all eyes will also be on tropical
storm dorian and what survives, if anything, as it exits the
northern Caribbean. Please visit www.Hurricanes.Gov to get the
latest information on the tropics. Otherwise, temperatures will be
near average for this time of year over the next 7 days but daily
cloud cover and precipitation activity will dictate temperatures
by a few degrees.


north to northeast winds will continue to turn westerly through
the afternoon hours. Thunderstorms in the vicinity is currently only in southern terminals
and lal. Uncertainty on convective timing/location remains too
high to warrant mention elsewhere at this time. Tempo MVFR
continues at rsw for at least the next hour or so. Southwest flow
returns tomorrow with earlier arrival of showers and storms.


through midweek, west to southwest flow setup will allow for a
better chance of showers and storms early in the morning across
the eastern Gulf waters which will then move inland through the
day. No headlines are expected at this time as winds and seas will
remain below thresholds... by later in the work week into the
weekend, a broad trough of low pressure in the Gulf will increase
rain chances across the eastern Gulf waters.


Fire weather...
light north to northeast winds will transition to a southwesterly
flow by Monday as an area of low pressure pulls away from the
region. A wet pattern will continue through the week and this will
help to keep fire danger low. The minimum humidity will also
remain well above critical levels.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 79 91 80 89 / 20 20 20 30
fmy 78 90 78 89 / 20 30 10 30
gif 77 94 77 91 / 30 70 40 50
srq 79 90 79 89 / 20 20 20 30
bkv 75 92 76 89 / 20 40 30 40
spg 81 90 80 88 / 20 10 10 30


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations