Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 ktbw 181947 cca 

Area forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
247 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

Corrected watch warning advisory section below to include beach
hazard headlines for Sarasota County.

a mid level trough moving through the lower Mississippi Valley
tonight will swing across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday. Some
clouds and a few isolated showers will be possible after midnight
through early Tuesday morning from the Bay area south as the
trough approaches where a 20 percent pop will be advertised,
otherwise dry conditions will continue. On Tuesday a reinforcing
shot of dry air will overspread the area in the wake of the trough
with pleasant dry weather continuing. During mid to late in the
week upper level ridging will set up over the forecast area as an
attendant surface high builds along the eastern Seaboard through
Thursday, then shifts east into the western Atlantic on Friday
with pleasant dry weather continuing through the period with
mainly clear nights and mostly sunny days.

During the upcoming weekend the progressive upper level pattern will
push another upper level trough into the eastern U.S. With an
attendant cold front moving south through the forecast area. Models
which have been differing some with the timing of the frontal
passage have now come into better agreement and show the front
moving south through the forecast during late Saturday afternoon and
night. A narrow ribbon of moisture accompanying the front should
result in isolated showers with the front and will maintain 20
percent pops in the grids/zones from late Saturday afternoon through
Sunday. In the wake of the front pleasant dry weather will return
during Sunday night into Monday as high pressure builds in over the
northern Gulf in the wake of the front.

Below normal temperatures of late will slowly warm back to normal
during mid to late in the week as the cool/dry air mass modifies as
the flow becomes northeast to east by mid week, then southeast to
south late in the week ahead of the next approaching front during
the upcoming weekend.


VFR will prevail at all of the terminals during the next 24 hours.
Northwest winds at 6 to 8 knots the remainder of the afternoon will
diminish to 5 knots or less after 00z tonight, then increase to 10
to 12 knots after 15z on Tuesday.


high pressure building in over the area will support tranquil
boating conditions on the Gulf waters through the end of the week.
Northwest to north winds in the 10 to 15 knot range tonight through
Tuesday will become northeast to east around 10 knots during
Wednesday and Thursday as the high builds in along the eastern
Seaboard. Winds will become southeast to south on Friday as the high
shifts east into the Atlantic, then becoming south to southwest with
a slight uptick in speeds on Saturday ahead of the next front. Winds
will shift to the northwest and north during Saturday night into
Sunday in the wake of the front as high pressure builds in over the
northern Gulf. Wind/seas should remain below 15 knots and 5 feet
through the period with no headlines expected at this time.


Fire weather...
increasing 20 foot winds and transport winds will support some high
dispersion indices across central and southern interior zones on
Tuesday. A reinforcing surge of dry air will move into the forecast
area on Tuesday. Despite the drier air, humidity values are forecast
to remain above critical levels with no red flag conditions


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 60 72 55 73 / 20 10 0 0
fmy 60 76 54 76 / 20 20 0 0
gif 54 72 50 74 / 10 0 0 0
srq 60 74 54 75 / 20 10 0 0
bkv 51 70 46 73 / 20 0 0 0
spg 62 71 58 73 / 20 10 0 0


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...Beach hazards statement until 10 PM EST this evening for coastal
Gulf waters...none.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations