Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 140933
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
533 am EDT Mon Oct 14 2019
ridge axis aloft extending across the southern peninsula from the
Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic is responsible for
westerly flow aloft across the region. A series of upper troughs
moving across the Great Lakes and northeast Continental U.S. Will gradually
nudge the ridge axis a bit further south from mid- to late-week,
and a shortwave originating from energy currently over Southern
California is expected to approach the state toward the end of
At the surface, high pressure ridging over the western Atlantic is
keeping most of the region under generally light easterly flow. The
ridging will gradually weaken and shift east as a frontal boundary
eventually drops into the northeast Gulf and stalls/weakens by mid-
week, allowing flow to become more southerly with a slight increase
in moisture over the area.
Rain chances will increase mid-week in advance of the front and once
again as the shortwave approaches the region toward the weekend.
While global guidance is in decent agreement regarding the timing of
the mid-week rain chances, subtle differences exist amongst the
guidance regarding the evolution of shortwave approaching toward the
weekend...with the GFS leaning toward a more consolidated shortwave
with rain chances on Fri-Sat and the European model (ecmwf) depicting more strewn out
shortwave energy which allows the rain chances to encompass Sat-Mon.
Regardless, at least isolated rain chances will be possible over the
latter half of the week and into the weekend across much of the
area. Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal,
with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will drop into the upper
60s to lower 70s through mid-week, with mid 60s possible at some
northern locations late-week.
VFR expected thru period with variable to light easterly winds
generally 5 kts or less thru sunrise, becoming southeast late morning,
increasing to SW 6 to 8 kts during afternoon and gradually
shifting to west/northwest late afternoon/early evening with sea breeze,
before decreasing to light/variable again overnight. Patchy ground
fog remains possible at klal thru 12z, otherwise no aviation
high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain
east/southeast winds/seas around 10kts or so into mid-week. Flow
shifts more south to southwest by mid-week as a front moves into
the northern Gulf, with winds SW 10-15 kts before becoming
east/northeast around 10 kts late week then 10-15 kts during
weekend. Seas generally 2-3 ft throughout period. Chance of rain
mainly beyond mid-week.
moistening conditions as the week progresses with minimum rhs
rising from the 45-50 percent range to the 60-70 percent range
through mid-week...when a weak cold front will settle into the
area with a chance of rain. Patchy areas of shallow overnight
field fog are possible but no significant fog is expected.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 88 72 87 74 / 10 0 10 10
fmy 89 71 89 73 / 20 20 10 0
gif 89 69 89 71 / 0 0 10 0
srq 89 72 89 73 / 10 0 0 10
bkv 89 68 89 71 / 0 10 10 10
spg 89 73 88 76 / 0 0 10 10