Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

FXUS62 KTBW 071926

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
226 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

A weak area of low pressure over the northeast Gulf this afternoon 
will gradually wash out through Sunday as surface high pressure 
builds down the eastern seaboard. A few isolated showers will be
possible over the northern gulf waters and over Levy county early
tonight, otherwise pleasant dry weather is expected through Sunday
with moderating temperatures. Temperatures tonight will be milder
than previous nights with overnight lows in the lower to mid 50s 
across the Nature coast, mid to upper 50s central and south
interior locations, and lower 60s along the immediate coast.

During Monday and Tuesday high pressure from the Atlantic
extending southwest across the central peninsula will maintain 
dry weather with warmer temperatures. Another upper level trough 
and attendant cold front will approach from the west Tuesday night 
with the front moving south through the region during Wednesday 
and Wednesday night as a weak area of low pressure rides along it 
from the Gulf. Sufficient moisture should support some scattered 
showers along and ahead of the front as it moves into the region, 
before it stalls out across the south-central peninsula on 

Now during Thursday night into Friday models show low pressure  
developing over the central Gulf of Mexico ahead of a potent upper 
level trough which will be diving southeastward into the western 
Gulf from the southern Plains with the upper trough and surface low 
then tracking east-northeastward across the northern Gulf coast 
and northern Florida peninsula during Friday night, and then up 
along the mid Atlantic coast on Saturday. 

As the low develops the remnant stalled frontal boundary across
the south central peninsula will lift back to the north as a 
warm front. As this occurs deeper moisture will be drawn northward
into the forecast area on a deep layered south to southwest wind 
flow. This moisture combined with increasing large scale lift and 
good dynamic support aloft will lead to increasing rain chances 
area-wide with the possibility of some isolated storms as well 
through Saturday as these features affect the area.

Warming temperatures can be expected tonight through early next
week with overnight lows moderating into the 50s and 60s from 
north to south with daytime highs in mid to upper 70s on Sunday, 
and then lower to mid 80s Monday through Wednesday. Cooler 
temperatures will return Thursday through Saturday in the wake of 
the front and low pressure system.


VFR will prevail. Light northeast to east winds will continue the 
remainder of the afternoon except becoming west-northwest at 5 to 
7 knots at the coast sites as a weak onshore sea breeze component 
develops. Northeast to east wind at 5 knots or less are expected 
after 02Z tonight, then becoming onshore again at the coastal 
sites during Sunday afternoon.


A weak area of low pressure over the northeast Gulf this afternoon 
will gradually wash out through Sunday as surface high pressure 
builds down the eastern seaboard. The high will move east into the
Atlantic early next week with the ridge axis extending back to 
the southwest across the central waters with a light southeast to 
southerly wind flow expected. A cold front will move into the 
northern waters on Wednesday, and into the south-central waters 
Wednesday night where it will eventually stall out through 
Thursday. As the front move into the area increasing winds and 
seas are expected, with a period of Cautionary or Advisory level 
conditions likely by late Wednesday into Thursday with some rough 
boating conditions developing for small craft operators.


Humidity values are forecast to remain above critical levels into  
early next week with no fire weather hazards expected.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  60  79  62  79 /  10  10   0   0 
FMY  60  80  62  81 /  10  10   0   0 
GIF  59  80  59  82 /  10  10   0   0 
SRQ  59  80  63  80 /  10  10   0   0 
BKV  55  80  58  80 /  10  10   0   0 
SPG  62  76  64  77 /  10  10   0   0 


Gulf waters...None.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations