Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 202352
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
652 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019
continuing VFR conditions through period with light north/northeast
winds overnight increasing to east/east-northeast 6 to 8 knots
around 15z, then shifting northerly around 21z at ktpa/kpie/ksrq.
Prev discussion... /issued 226 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019/
Short term (tonight - thursday)...
high pressure surface and aloft building in along the eastern
Seaboard will maintain pleasant dry weather across the entire
forecast area tonight through Thursday with clear skies. The clear
skies and light winds will again support another cool night across
the forecast area tonight with overnight lows falling into the
mid/upper 40s across the Nature Coast, upper 40s to around 50
central interior zones, and lower to mid 50s across southwest
Florida and along the Gulf Coast. After a cool start Thursday
morning temperatures will rebound quickly into the lower to mid
70s north, and mid to upper 70s central and south.
Long term (thursday night - wednesday)...
deep ridging over the area Thu night slowly tracks east...reaching
the open Atlantic Sat. Meanwhile a mid level low above the Central
Plains slides across the greats to southern Quebec, Canada sun...
with a trough and associated cold front trailing southward. This
trough/front moves into the East Gulf Sat afternoon/night then
across FL...exiting Sun night. For Mon and Tue: a short wave
trough traverses the southeastern states with ridging in it's wake
as surface high pressure builds in. By Wed a long wave trough and
accompanying cold front shifts from the Mississippi Valley to
offshore the eastern Seaboard while stretching back across Florida then
westward over the Gulf of Mexico.
The atmosphere remains stable and dry for the most part. However
the troughs/fronts sun and again Wed will supply enough moisture
and lift for showers with precipitation chances of 20-40 percent
sun and mainly 20 percent Wed. Temperatures warm through the
weekend then dip early in the week before warming again...they
stay within about 5 degrees of normal.
VFR will prevail during the next 24 hours. North/northwest winds at 6 to 8
knots the remainder of the afternoon will become light NE after
00z tonight, then becoming northeast to east and increasing to 6
to 8 knots after 14z on Thursday.
high pressure will support pleasant boating conditions over the
Gulf waters the remainder of the week. Northeast winds in the
10-15 knot range tonight will become east on Thursday as the high
builds in along the eastern Seaboard. Winds will become southeast
to south on Friday as the high shifts eastward into the Atlantic,
with winds then becoming south to southwest with a slight uptick
in speeds expected on Saturday ahead of the next cold front. Winds
will shift to the northwest and north and remain elevated during
late Saturday night into Sunday in the wake of the front as high
pressure builds in over the area.
humidity values will remain above critical levels through the end
of the week and into the upcoming weekend with no red flag
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 54 75 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
fmy 54 78 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
gif 52 77 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
srq 54 77 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
bkv 48 76 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
spg 57 74 61 76 / 0 0 0 0