Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 ktbw 181358 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
858 am EST Mon Nov 18 2019

a short wave/vort Max over the northeast Gulf this morning will
move across the north-Central Peninsula later this morning and
then exit to the east into the Atlantic during the afternoon with
little impact on the weather. Morning raob data shows a strong
subsidence inversion around 840mb with very dry air noted above it
and ample moisture below. The low level moisture below the inversion
continues to support areas of low clouds across southwest Florida
as I write with scattered to broken strato-cu clouds noted across
the remainder of the forecast area. As the day continues we should
see more sun develop compared to the last few days as drier air
finally works it way into the region with partly sunny skies
expected during the afternoon. Cool air advection of late will
weaken today and with more sunshine expected temperature should
climb into the lower 70s during the afternoon which will be some
10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday's very cool temps in the 50s.
Current forecast is on track with no changes or updates required
at this time.


IFR/LIFR cigs affecting the southwest terminals should gradually
improve to VFR by late morning with VFR expected to continue at
all of the terminals through the remainder of the taf forecast
period. Northeast to north wind at 4 to 7 knots will back to the
northwest at 7 to 10 knots after 15z. Winds will diminish to 5
knots or less after 00z tonight.


high pressure will maintain tranquil boating conditions on the
Gulf water the remainder of today with northwest winds around 10
knots and seas of 2 feet or less. Ongoing forecast is in good
shape with no changes expected in the mid morning update around
10 am.


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations