Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 190514
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
114 am EDT Thu Sep 19 2019
VFR conditions expected through the period. The only aviation
concern will be gusty winds on Thursday afternoon. Winds will
increase northeast at around 10 knots with gusts near 20 knots
possible during the afternoon. No other aviation impacts expected.
Prev discussion... /issued 812 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019/
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue mainly on
the West Coast of Florida. This shower activity should diminish in
the next few hours. Behind the front we will see much lower
humidity with temperatures a few degrees cooler in the morning
and afternoon hours. The next few days will also remain breezy in
the afternoon with gust around 15 to 20 mph. No major changes
needed this evening with just a few tweaks to the pops to reflect
thunderstorms in the vicinity will remain possible through 03z for all airports except pgd
and lal. Expect VFR conditions through the period with winds out
of the NE and east. Winds will get gusty tomorrow afternoon with
gust up to 20 kts possible.
Prev discussion... /issued 229 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019/
through Thu: Imelda and Humberto will maintain northerly mid level
flow across the area. See National Hurricane Center advisories and
forecasts for details and updates. At the surface a back door front
moves into South Florida tonight and stalls as high pressure builds down
the eastern Seaboard.
Convection has been a bit slower to start than expected this afternoon
however still anticipate some showers and storms later this afternoon
and evening...have adjusted the afternoon/evening periods to
better reflect this. The front will usher in slightly drier and
coolish air tonight and Fri. Although the stalled front in the
south and prevailing northeasterly flow dragging in a bit more
Atlantic moisture will support some low rain chances in the south
and interior central Thu afternoon.
For Fri-Wed: mid level ridging builds in across the eastern U.S.
During the weekend then slides west and south early in the week as a
low tracking across eastern Canada swings a trough over the eastern
Seaboard by midweek. The surface high becomes centered on the mid-
Atlantic coast and sprawls outward through Sat. The high pressure
weakens somewhat sun-Mon as Tropical Storm Jerry tracks across the
Atlantic...see National Hurricane Center advisories and forecasts
for details and updates. High pressure builds back into the area
from Canada Tue-Wed. Moisture begins to slowly return Fri and provide
some low rain chances through sun...mainly across the south. Drier
air moves back in for the start of next week with no significant
rainfall until midweek.
a front with some showers and thunderstorms exits the waters to the
south this evening as high pressure begins to build in from the north
and dominates through the weekend. Northeasterly winds increase to
headline or advisory criteria and continue through the weekend then
shift to easterly and start to diminish for early next week.
drier air begins working in tonight...limiting rain chances but
with sufficient moisture to keep minimum relative humidity above critical levels for the
next couple of days. Moisture will start to increase during the
weekend. Some robust 20 foot and transport winds will create high
dispersions Thu and Fri.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 88 72 90 73 / 0 10 20 0
fmy 88 73 89 74 / 30 10 20 0
gif 87 72 88 73 / 20 20 10 0
srq 89 72 90 73 / 10 10 30 10
bkv 88 69 90 70 / 10 10 20 0
spg 89 73 90 73 / 0 10 30 10