Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 171814
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
214 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019
high pressure ridges over southern Florida, while a frontal boundary
extends across northern Florida. Models show this front dissipating
and slowly drifting south over the next 24 hours. Rain chances will
be on the low side today with near average temperatures in the mid
80's. The big weather story over the next 48 hours will be with
potential tropical cyclone 16 located over the southwest Gulf of
Mexico. This storm will move northeast through the Gulf of Mexico
over the next 24-48 hours and will bring increasing rain chances and
gusty winds late Friday through Saturday. The latest advisory has
the storm making landfall over the Florida Panhandle late Friday/early
Saturday morning, then quickly moving out of the area by Sunday
allowing for high pressure to build into the region. This pattern
will remain until next Tuesday when another frontal boundary
approaches from the west.
VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will remain onshore
around 5-8 knots this afternoon, then becoming light and variable
after 03z. Will hold vcsh at all terminal except klal after 15z
Friday morning. No other aviation impacts expected.
high pressure ridges across southern Florida while a weakening front
extends across northern Florida. Winds remain light at 10 knots or
less through the next 24 hours. Winds and seas will begin to
increase on Friday afternoon as potential tropical cyclone 16 moves
northeast toward the Florida Panhandle. Impacts from this system will
be gusty winds near gale force, building seas to 9-13 feet,
possible waterspouts and frequent lightning. Mariners should keep
a close eye on the weather if planning to be in the Gulf of Mexico
over the next 24-72 hours. High pressure will build back into the
area by Sunday with benign weather conditions expected through
the middle of next week.
no fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as
relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 71 83 74 85 / 10 70 60 70
fmy 74 87 77 85 / 10 40 40 60
gif 70 83 73 85 / 0 60 50 60
srq 72 87 76 87 / 10 70 70 70
bkv 66 82 71 85 / 10 60 60 70
spg 73 85 76 86 / 10 70 70 70
Florida...tropical storm watch for coastal Levy.
Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for waters from Tarpon Springs to
Suwannee River Florida out 20 to 60 nm.
Tropical storm watch for coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
Suwannee River Florida out 20 nm.