Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 191825
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
225 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019
Short term (tonight - tuesday)...
surface/mid level ridging from the western Atlantic extending west
across the north-central Florida Peninsula will remain in place
through the period with an east-southeast wind flow continuing
across the forecast area. Scattered showers and storms over the
region early tonight will end by sunset with skies becoming partly
cloudy overnight. On Tuesday increasing moisture (pw's in the 1.8
to 2+ inch range) combined with daytime heating will support
scattered to numerous diurnal sea breeze driven showers and storms
across the forecast area during the afternoon with a southeast
steering flow favoring the best convective coverage and highest
pops (60 percent) setting up along and to the west of the I-75
corridor during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Slow
moving storms will support locally heavy rainfall and with the
ground remaining quite saturated from the recent heavy rains the
threat of some localized flooding and additional rises on area
rivers will continue to be a problem. Temperatures will run near
normal with lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s, with daytime
highs on Tuesday climbing to around 90 to the lower 90s.
Long term (tuesday night - monday)...
the Bermuda high ridge has shifted northward and will be the
dominant weather feature through the long term period. This will
keep US in a more typical summertime pattern with an east-southeast
wind flow. This will support daily showers and storms developing
along the East Coast sea breeze early afternoon and transiting
westward. Winds will be light enough for the West Coast sea breeze
to push inland each afternoon as well. Sea breeze collisions
combined with daytime heating and abundant moisture (pwat between
1.7 - 2.0 inches) will allow for scattered to numerous showers and
storms each afternoon. Some of these storms could produce heavy
rainfall, but we are not expecting a daily wash-out like we have
seen the past couple of weeks. Many local rivers are well above
average with several in or near flood stage. Any additional rainfall
over those river basins will continue to cause elevated water levels
in those locations. Temperatures will hover right around average
with low to mid 90's each afternoon and mid 70's overnight.
brief MVFR cigs/vsbys may impact the terminals between 20-01z as
scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain develop over the region and have handled with
thunderstorms in the vicinity for now, otherwise VFR is expected during the next 24 hours.
East-southeast winds at 6 to 8 knots will become west to northwest
at the coast terminals after 19z as the sea breeze develops with
light east to southeast winds returning after 01z tonight.
high pressure across the region will support tranquil boating
conditions over the Gulf waters through the remainder of the week
with southeast winds around 10 knots with seas of 2 feet or less
with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast
each afternoon. Wind and seas will be higher near late afternoon
and evening thunderstorms, otherwise no headlines are expected.
humidity values will remain above critical levels through the
remainder of the week with no fire weather hazards expected.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 76 91 76 89 / 30 60 50 60
fmy 76 92 75 92 / 40 60 50 60
gif 74 92 74 93 / 20 50 40 40
srq 75 92 76 91 / 40 60 50 60
bkv 73 92 74 93 / 30 60 50 60
spg 77 90 78 91 / 30 60 50 60