Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 221915
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
215 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019
Near term [through tonight]...
Cold front west of the area today will only make slow eastward
progress overnight as the initial shortwave lifts quickly northeast
and a low amplitude upper ridge holds in place across the forecast
area. This will keep the bulk of the shower activity west of region
through tonight. However, a shower or two cannot be ruled out across
southeast Alabama after midnight. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail,
with guidance showing patchy fog developing across inland areas.
Short term [saturday through Sunday night]...
In the upper levels, a trough over the lower Mississippi Valley will
move into the southeast by tomorrow evening. On Sunday and Sunday
night weak troughing will be over the region. At the surface, a low
pressure system centered over the apalachians will bring a cold
front through the region tomorrow. The best chance for rain and
isolated thunder will be tomorrow afternoon and evening with pops
around 80 percent for the region. The rain will move out by Sunday
morning as cold, dry air advection returns. Highs will be in the 70s
tomorrow and in the 60s on Sunday. Lows will be in the 40s tomorrow
night and colder in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Sunday night.
Long term [monday through friday]...
In the upper levels, weak troughing will be in place until a ridge
builds in by midweek. At the surface, high pressure will be in place
until the next system approaches midweek. The best chance for rain
will be Tuesday night and Wednesday as moisture increases. Highs
will be in the 60s on Monday then in the 70s for the rest of the
week. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s.
[through 18z saturday]
VFR for the remainder of the afternoon and evening. IFR cigs and
vsbys are expected after 6z for aby and tlh, while dhn and vld
switch to MVFR for roughly the same time frame. Some showers will
begin to move into the area preceding a line of thunderstorms which
will pass through during the afternoon tomorrow. Confidence is not
high enough in impacts to terminals from these showers to include in
this set of tafs.
Southerly winds will increase tomorrow before becoming northwesterly
tomorrow night as a cold front moves through. Northwesterly winds
will be 15 to 20 knots tomorrow night. Winds will begin to decrease
on Sunday. Southerly winds will return midweek as another frontal
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
Most local rivers are fairly low. There is a high chance for rain
tomorrow as a cold front moves through. Another good chance for rain
will come midweek as another system approaches. Forecast rainfall
totals are less than one inch for the next seven days. Flooding is
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 57 77 49 65 42 / 0 40 70 0 0
Panama City 63 77 50 65 46 / 0 70 50 0 0
Dothan 58 75 45 62 39 / 10 80 30 0 0
Albany 58 76 48 63 41 / 10 70 70 0 0
Valdosta 54 76 49 64 41 / 0 20 70 0 0
Cross City 53 76 53 67 44 / 0 10 70 10 0
Apalachicola 64 76 51 64 47 / 0 60 70 0 0
Florida...high rip current risk until midnight EST tonight for coastal