Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 211540
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1040 am EST Thu Nov 21 2019
The forecast for today remains in good shape, with no updates
required this morning.
Previous discussion [620 am est]...
Near term [through today]...
Surface high pressure north of our area moves south and east today
which will cause winds to veer from northeasterly to southeasterly.
This should initiate a gradual warming trend today as Gulf
maritime air moves onshore and inland. Highs are forecast to be in
the low 70s. Overall, another dry day with few clouds and light
winds is expected.
Short term [tonight through saturday]...
Deep layer ridging will hold through Friday with no rainfall and
temperatures near to slightly above normal. An upstream trough
will move through the Southern Plains accompanying a cold front
which will enter the County Warning Area late Saturday. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the front. Instability is low and not
expecting severe weather at this time. Cold air advection will
hold off to the beginning of the long term.
Long term [saturday night through thursday]...
The front moves through Saturday night with a period of dry
weather and cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday. Another trough
moves across the central Continental U.S. Tuesday supporting a low pressure
system. Warm air advection will drive temperatures back slightly
above normal for Tuesday with the next cold front on tap for
Wednesday with a chance for rainfall. Confidence is low that the
front moves through at this time; rather, the front stalls and
moves back northward as a warm front and our temperatures remain
slightly above normal.
[through 12z friday]
Light winds with some high clouds moving in from the north and
west will make for VFR conditions for all terminals this taf
cycle. An increase in cloud cover areawide is expected around 6z
through the end of the period.
Favorable marine conditions featuring moderate easterly winds and
modest seas will continue through Friday night. A cold front will
approach the area Saturday with winds increasing to cautionary
levels through early Sunday. Late weekend, winds will be moderate
northwesterly with seas slowly decreasing.
Although dry weather is on tap through Friday, relative humidity values will remain
above critical thresholds. Therefore hazardous fire conditions are not
Two systems will affect the tri-state region over the next week.
Generally, less than an inch of rainfall is expected. Therefore,
no flooding is anticipated.
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 73 49 74 57 77 / 0 0 0 10 50
Panama City 73 55 75 63 77 / 0 0 0 10 70
Dothan 71 48 74 57 75 / 0 0 0 10 80
Albany 71 49 73 57 76 / 0 0 0 10 80
Valdosta 72 49 74 54 76 / 0 0 0 10 40
Cross City 74 52 74 54 76 / 0 0 0 10 30
Apalachicola 70 56 73 62 76 / 0 0 0 10 60