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fxus62 ktae 111915 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
215 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019

Near term [through tonight]...

Clouds will increase rapidly tonight as a strong cold front
approaches the area. Rain will accompany the front and likely
reach the western border of the forecast area within a couple of
hours of sunrise. With limited instability, thunderstorms do not
appear likely.

Short term [tuesday through Wednesday night]...

The strong cold front will clear the area during the day on
Tuesday with gusty winds and falling temperatures during the day
behind it. Strong cold advection on Tuesday night is expected to
result in a light freeze across the northern and western portions
of the area by Wednesday morning. In addition, since winds will
stay somewhat elevated overnight, wind chill values will reach the
low to mid 20s across the northwest portions of the area Tuesday
night. Despite mostly sunny skies on Wednesday, high temperatures
are expected to remain in the 50s across the area with a cold
airmass in place. This sets up another chilly night on Wednesday
with overnight lows dipping close to freezing again across the
northern portions of the area.

Long term [thursday through monday]...

Models are in general agreement that an area of low pressure will
develop along the Gulf Coast in association with another upper
level shortwave towards the end of the week. Some timing and
intensity differences remain in the guidance, but a chance of rain
appears to return at the end of the week.



[through 18z tuesday] VFR conditions and light winds will continue
through most of the night at all taf sites. A cold front and
associated rain/low clouds will be moving in after 9z from west to
east, dropping ceilings to IFR or around 1200-1500ft. Confidence is
not high on which side of 1000ft the ceilings will fall. These IFR
ceilings should be brief; right along with the heavy rain. MVFR ceilings
will likely stick around most of the early afternoon. Ceilings should
lift and rain should end around 17-19z for most sites with vld not
seeing rain until around 18z.



A strong cold front will move through the area on Tuesday.
Advisory conditions will occur across the entire area behind the
front. Gusts will reach close to gale force, especially across the
western waters. However, nearly all of the model derived wind gust
guidance keeps frequent gale force gusts west of the area, and
forecast soundings from BUFKIT show momentum Transfer wind gust
potential mostly in the 30-33 knot range across our waters. Thus,
we'll hold off on a Gale Warning for now. Winds and seas will
remain elevated through at least Wednesday.


Fire weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.



There are no flooding issues expected for the next several days.
Rainfall amounts through Tuesday are expected to be fairly light.
There is more uncertainty with the potential Gulf low at the end
of the week, but area rivers are still running low overall and
flooding is unlikely from that system as well.


Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.


Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 57 69 35 56 41 / 10 70 10 0 10
Panama City 59 70 35 57 44 / 60 80 0 0 0
Dothan 49 59 29 51 35 / 60 80 0 0 0
Albany 54 61 32 51 36 / 20 90 10 0 0
Valdosta 56 70 33 53 40 / 0 70 10 0 10
Cross City 59 77 40 59 47 / 0 70 20 0 0
Apalachicola 64 72 38 58 46 / 20 80 10 0 10


Tae watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...freeze watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for
Calhoun-central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-inland Bay-Jackson-
Liberty-north Walton-south Walton-Washington.

Georgia...freeze watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for
Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-

Alabama...freeze watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 am Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday
for Apalachee Bay or coastal waters from Keaton Beach to
Ochlockonee River Florida out to 20 nm-coastal waters from
Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 nm-coastal
waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach Florida out 20 nm-
waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola Florida from 20 to 60

Small Craft Advisory from 6 am Tuesday to noon CST Wednesday for
coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola Florida out 20
nm-coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
County line Florida out 20 nm-waters from Apalachicola to Mexico
Beach Florida from 20 to 60 nm-waters from Mexico Beach to
Okaloosa Walton County line Florida from 20 to 60 nm.



Near term...dvd
short term...dvd
long term...dvd

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