Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 140904
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
404 am EST Thu Nov 14 2019
Near term [through today]...
Trough across the Central Plains will dig today and absorb an upper
level shortwave located across Texas. Meanwhile at the surface, high
pressure across the eastern Continental U.S. Will slide off into the Atlantic
today. In this pattern, winds will be northeasterly at the surface
with southerly winds at 850mb and southwest above that. While a few
sprinkles will be possible earlier in the day, rain chances will
increase for the afternoon with isentropic driven showers.
Instability is limited so no mention of thunderstorms in the
forecast. Cloud coverage will be extensive today with highs only in
the 50s for most areas (except mid 60s across the far southeast big
bend). Overall, expect a gloomy, cooler day with rain moving in,
mainly in the afternoon.
Short term [tonight through saturday]...
A rainy night is in store for the region as an upper level low
moving eastwards out of Texas interacts with another upper level
disturbance quickly moving southeast from the Central Plains.
These features will interact with increasing moisture content
moving in from the Gulf of Mexico to produce widespread rain
showers through the overnight hours and into early parts of
Friday. Rainfall amounts will generally be around half an inch to
2 or 3 inches, with the higher end of these amounts likely to be
near our Big Bend coastal zones and inland locations approaching
the I-75 corridor. The surface low for this feature will remain
offshore and southeast of the forecast area with our locales
primarily on the cool side of this feature. That being said,
severe weather is not expected.
The upper level low continues to amplify/deepen as it slowly
translates east on Friday into Saturday. Mid-level dry air will
begin to wrap around the southern periphery of this feature on
Friday, reducing the chance for widespread rain showers, but wrap
around moisture under the disturbance will likely lead to cloudy
conditions on Friday, especially in our Georgia and Alabama
counties where there is the possibility for scattered rain showers
to persist through the day.
Conditions become dry on Saturday and a little bit warmer as
clouds give way to partly cloudy skies. High temperatures should
make it into the 60s across southeast Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle while cooler conditions stick around in our east where
clouds will be slow to clear.
Long term [saturday night through thursday]...
The progressive weather pattern we've found ourselves in over the
last week looks likely to continue into next week. Shortwave ridge
moves in by the end of the weekend with warmer temperatures
expected Sunday. Looking ahead to next week another upper level
disturbance passes through Monday night into Tuesday, bringing
with it a brief chance for rain before drier conditions return
towards the middle of next week.
[through 06z friday]
MVFR conditions are expected through the night and much of the
day with IFR conditions expected for Thursday night. Rain showers
will move into the taf sites this afternoon.
Active weather through the next few days will prevail with
widespread rain showers building in later this afternoon into the
overnight period. Northerly winds will pick up over area waters
this afternoon, especially offshore where a Small Craft Advisory
is in effect. Northerly winds will prevail through the next few
days with winds generally around 15 to 25 knots, with the higher
values being located in offshore waters. Seas will run high as
well with values generally around 3 to 5 feet in nearshore waters
increasing to 4 to 7 in offshore waters. Winds don't look to
lessen significantly until the early part of next week. No rain is
expected after Friday.
Low dispersion values are expected today. Rain chances will increase
for today through tomorrow before drying out for the weekend. With
plenty of moisture, red flag conditions are not expected.
There are no flooding concerns at this time. Widespread rain is
expected late Thursday into Friday with amounts of 1 to 3 inches
possible across the Florida Big Bend and portions of south central
Georgia. Lesser amounts are expected for the Panhandle and
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 56 48 56 46 60 / 60 90 30 20 10
Panama City 58 47 57 45 64 / 50 80 20 10 0
Dothan 51 43 51 40 60 / 50 80 20 20 10
Albany 50 45 53 45 58 / 40 80 40 40 20
Valdosta 56 48 56 46 56 / 50 90 40 40 20
Cross City 65 53 62 49 60 / 40 90 50 20 10
Apalachicola 60 49 58 47 62 / 50 90 20 10 10
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 am CST Friday
for waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach Florida from 20 to
60 nm-waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
line Florida from 20 to 60 nm.