Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 202015
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
315 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019
Near term [through tonight]...
Ridging in expected to remain over the County Warning Area for the period leading
to clear skies, relatively calm winds, and no chance of rain. At
the surface, the high pressure center remains north of the County Warning Area
over Kentucky and will move east toward the Carolinas. Winds are
expected to be less than 10kts out of the north shifting to the
east by tomorrow morning. High temps will be in the low 70s this
afternoon with lows in the low 40s tomorrow morning, possibly
reaching the upper 30s depending on how efficient the radiational
cooling is overnight.
Short term [thursday through Friday night]...
Deep layer ridging will prevail, with no rain and seasonable
Long term [saturday through wednesday]...
A longwave trough will form over the eastern Continental U.S. In response to
a shortwave moving through the MS/TN/OH valleys to start the
period. A cold front will move through the tri-state region
Saturday night, with less than an inch of rain expected on
average. Due to a lack of instability, severe weather is not
expected at this time. A brief period of cooler temperatures is
expected to start next week, though they will moderate quickly in
advance of the next frontal system which is slated to arrive near
the end of the period.
[through 18z thursday]
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through the
taf period. Winds will remain light and variable.
Moderate easterly flow will veer southwesterly over the next few
days, though marine conditions should remain below headline
levels. Behind a cold front this weekend, cautionary conditions
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
Rainfall amounts with this weekend's front are forecast to be less
than an inch on average. Thus, flooding is not a concern within
the upcoming week.
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 44 71 49 74 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 49 71 55 75 63 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 43 69 48 74 57 / 0 0 0 0 20
Albany 44 69 49 73 57 / 0 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 43 69 48 74 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 45 72 51 74 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 51 68 56 73 62 / 0 0 0 0 0