Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 161002
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
602 am EDT Mon Sep 16 2019
[through 12z tuesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the period. Northeast winds in the 5 to 10 knot range are expected
during the day.
Previous discussion [240 am edt]...
Near term [through today]...
Dry conditions with above average temperatures will prevail again
today with high pressure and light northerly flow. Afternoon high
temperatures are expected to reach the mid 90s for most areas with
heat index values peaking in the upper 90s to lower 100s this
Short term [tonight through wednesday]...
The main story will be the heat on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Deep layer ridging with a dry offshore flow will build the
heat across the area. High temperatures will be around 10
degrees above normal by mid-September standards ranging from
the middle to upper 90s! The daily high temperature records
in Tallahassee are as follows:
Sep 17: 99f (occuring in 1927 and 1933)
Sep 18: 98f (2005)
Based on the current forecast there is the potential to
either tie or break these records. For Apalachicola, the
forecast is still around three degrees below the daily
records on these dates.
Heat indices in the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday and Wednesday
will also range from around 100 to 105 degrees.
There is the potential for a thundershower late Wednesday
with the approach of a shortwave in the northerly flow,
mainly across southwest Georgia into the eastern Florida Big Bend.
Long term [wednesday night through monday]...
High pressure building along the Lee of the Appalachians will
Herald the arrival of a cooler air mass on Thursday through
Saturday, with temperatures close to average. Continued deep layer
ridging aloft will keep it mainly dry during this time frame. The
only exception may be the eastern Big Bend into portions of
southwest GA, where a combination of Atlantic moisture and diurnal
heating could lead to some isolated showers. The ridge begins to
break down on Sunday and Monday, with the large scale flow
beginning to veer from northeast to southwest. But the lack of
lift and deeper moisture keeps any precipitation potential minimal
at this time, so the forecast remains dry. Temperatures will
return to slightly above normal levels.
Tranquil boating conditions are expected through Wednesday
with light winds and low seas. Northeast winds will increase
Wednesday night and remain elevated through Friday night,
with the potential for cautionary conditions around 20 knots
at times. Seas will also increase to around 5 feet west
of the Ochlockonee River during this time frame.
Although red flag conditions are not expected for the next several
days, conditions are expected to remain dry with relative humidity
values dropping into the low to mid 30s at times this week. In
addition, northeast winds may get into the 10-15 mph range by
Thursday and Friday.
A dry stretch of weather is anticipated through at least this
weekend with precipitation well below average. In addition,
most local rivers are experiencing stream flows below normal
levels. No flooding concerns anticipated through the period.
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 96 71 98 72 98 / 0 0 0 0 20
Panama City 93 74 94 76 95 / 10 0 0 0 10
Dothan 95 69 97 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 94 71 96 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 20
Valdosta 93 70 95 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 20
Cross City 94 72 94 72 95 / 10 0 0 0 20
Apalachicola 91 74 92 76 93 / 10 0 0 10 20