Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 072103
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
403 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019
Near term [through tonight]...
A shortwave trough over MS/Alabama will dive down into our western County Warning Area
tonight. This feature, in combination with lingering moisture from a
weak low-pressure system offshore from the Panhandle, will keep rain
chances elevated for mostly our marine zones (30-50%) before
shifting to our western waters. Mostly cloudy skies are expected to
persist areawide through the near term, keeping inland low
temperatures around 50. Winds become easterly at around 10 knots.
Short term [sunday through Monday night]...
A wedge of high pressure will build in from the northeast on
Sunday keeping most available moisture and rain chances confined
to our western zones. The Wedge weakens by Monday as a cold front
moves out of the plains into the southeast Continental U.S.. this will allow
better coverage of moisture across our County Warning Area as winds increase from
south and southwest. Even so, rain chances at best appear to be in
the low end chance category (30%) and quantitative precipitation forecast will be light. High
temps Sunday will range from the upper 60s north to mid 70s south
warming into the upper 70s to around 80 Monday with the
increasing southerly flow. Lows both nights will be in the upper
50s to lower 60s.
Long term [tuesday through saturday]...
The aforementioned cold front will move through our area by
Tuesday night. However, we may not see a break in rain chances as
models show an upper low ejecting east out of Texas and into the
lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday/Wednesday night along with a
weak surface low in the north central Gulf. This system is then
forecast to lift northeastward through the remainder of the work
week with rain chances continuing each day. Tuesday will be warm
followed by much cooler temperatures through the rest of the
period. Highs Tuesday in the upper 70s to around 80 with highs in
the 50s and 60s for the rest of the week with lows cooling into
the 30s and 40s.
[through 18z sunday]
VFR conditions for all terminals W/tlh temporarily MVFR until the 18-
22z timeframe. Mostly cloudy skies to persist areawide this taf
cycle as a weak, low-pressure system lingers offshore of the
Panhandle. Rain showers are possible for ecp thru today, given its proximity
to coast. East-to-se winds increase to around 10 kts tonight.
A weak area of low pressure over the northeast Gulf will keep winds
and seas elevated to cautionary levels through Sunday night. Winds
are expected to veer to southwesterly ahead of a cold front early
next week. Winds and seas will likely increase to advisory levels by
the middle of the week.
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
Rainfall amounts over the next several days are expected to be
mainly on the light side. By the end of the week, the possibility
exists for a round of heavier rainfall, but flooding is not
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 50 73 59 78 60 / 10 10 20 30 10
Panama City 56 72 63 77 64 / 20 20 40 40 20
Dothan 51 68 58 77 61 / 0 20 30 30 20
Albany 49 68 57 77 62 / 0 10 20 30 20
Valdosta 49 72 57 79 61 / 10 10 10 10 10
Cross City 52 76 59 80 58 / 20 10 0 0 0
Apalachicola 56 71 64 76 63 / 30 20 30 30 10