Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 082011
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
311 PM EST sun Dec 8 2019
Near term [through tonight]...
A split-flow pattern over the MS/Tennessee Valley is resulting in
accelerated northerly flow across our western cwa, interacting with
a weak trough of low-pressure in the northern Gulf Coast. This
interaction will produce widespread cloudiness for our area and 30-
50% pops for our western waters and Panhandle coast, and Alabama zones
(10-20% around the tri-state area). Overcast skies combined with
east-to-southeast, onshore winds will make for somewhat mild low
temperatures tonight (mid 50s).
Short term [monday through Tuesday night]...
A warm front will have lifted north of the region by daybreak
Monday with a warm moist onshore flow in it's wake. Models show a
ribbon of deeper moisture cutting through our County Warning Area. This combined
with temps warming into the upper 70s to around 80 Monday will
keep slight to low end chance pops in the forecast, albeit quantitative precipitation forecast
amounts will be light. A better chance for rain arrives on Tuesday
and continues through Tuesday night as a cold front approaches.
The best chances for rain will be across our northern and western
zones. High temperatures Tuesday will be around 80 which will be
our last warm day for at least the remainder of the work week.
Lows will be around 60 Monday night and range from near 50 far
northwest to the lower 60s across the southeast Big Bend.
Long term [wednesday through sunday]...
Reasonable agreement that the cold front will clear the area on
Wednesday. There could be a little thunder right along the boundary
but most pcpn on Wednesday will just be Post-frontal rains due to
overrunning. For Wednesday night into Thursday areas of mainly
light rain will continue to decrease in coverage but not end
completely as the front stalls to our south and moisture rides north
into the area. Generally undercut mex temperatures and went more in
line with the nbm as the operational GFS does not look to surge as
much cool air in here as looks likely.
Looking at the GFS ensembles and the differences between the European model (ecmwf)
and the operational GFS it's clear there is very low predictability
with the strong wave that will dig into the southern US Fri/Sat. The
operational GFS swings a strong negatively tilted upper trough
through the deep south which drives a surface low through Alabama and
produces a severe wx setup for the area. Most of the GFS ensemble
members, along with the Euro, do not do this hwvr and suggest most
of the upper level energy will dive south with the area. This
scenario seems most reasonable although the details concerning rain
chances becoming increasingly unclear and confidence is low. Will
hold onto pops into Saturday night and later shifts can assess if
we'll need to extend rain chances through Sunday.
[through 18z monday]
Widespread cloudiness W/E-to-se winds becoming southerly around 10
knots for taf cycle. VFR conditions for tlh, ecp and vld this
afternoon, before transitioning to MVFR tonight thru early-morning
hours (ifr at vld is possible 8-12z W/low ceilings expected - improves
to VFR after). Looking like MVFR for all other terminals around
Winds and seas will slowly relax this evening with a couple
relatively good boating days ahead. Tuesday night into Wednesday
winds and seas will steadily increase as a cold front moves
through the waters with advisory level conditions possible
through the wend of the work week.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected through this week.
High dispersions are possible in the afternoon hours. Patchy fog is
possible in the morning hours.
While a period of wet conditions are expected through the next
week, rainfall amounts are forecast to be rather low through mid-
week. As an upper level wave moves through the southeast late this
week, an inch or two of rain is possible on average across the
tri-state region. For now, flooding is not expected to be a
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 56 77 61 80 59 / 0 30 10 30 50
Panama City 61 75 64 78 57 / 30 40 10 40 60
Dothan 57 76 60 79 51 / 20 30 10 60 60
Albany 56 77 63 80 54 / 0 20 10 50 60
Valdosta 54 79 61 82 60 / 0 10 10 10 40
Cross City 56 78 58 81 63 / 0 10 10 10 40
Apalachicola 61 74 63 76 60 / 20 40 10 40 50
Florida...high rip current risk through late tonight for coastal Franklin.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for coastal
waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola Florida out 20 nm-
coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
line Florida out 20 nm-waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach
Florida from 20 to 60 nm-waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa
Walton County line Florida from 20 to 60 nm.