Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 190047
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
847 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019
The backdoor cold front was analyzed across our southwest Georgia
counties this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
developed this afternoon ahead of this boundary and a few of the
storms became severe with damaging downburst winds. Most of this
activity has since moved into the adjacent coastal waters. The
front will continue to push slowly to the southwest overnight and
through the County Warning Area by daybreak. A cooler and drier airmass will
filter in from the northeast in it's wake. Lows will range from
the upper 60s north to lower 70s along the immediate coast.
Previous discussion [731 PM edt]...
Near term [through tonight]...
A backdoor front is currently progressing through the region from
the east/northeast and moving to the southwest. The front will bring
cooler temps behind it, a welcomed event with the recent above
normal temperatures. At the time of this update, isolated
thunderstorms associated with a shortwave ahead of the front have
developed across the tri-state area and are moving south toward
the Gulf. Thunderstorms associated with the frontal boundary are
possible through the first half of tonight. These storms could be
amplified later today with the arrival of the Atlantic seabreeze
from the East Coast. Tomorrow morning will be slightly cooler than
mornings over the last week with a low temp around 70.
Short term [thursday through Friday night]...
The moisture brought into our area by a frontal boundary today will
advect west-to-southwestward along the Panhandle and northern Gulf
on Thursday, where any convection will be offshore or just along the
coast of the Florida Panhandle. Thereafter, dry air is reintroduced
as high pressure dominates the southeast US and western Atlantic,
keeping pops at or near zero for the short term (with the exception
of the extreme coast of the Florida Panhandle where there is a
slight chance of precip). Low-level flow will shift to easterly for
the end of the work week. The aforementioned front will also bring
some welcomed cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s and lows in
Long term [saturday through wednesday]...
Dry conditions to prevail in the long term as our area will be
affected by high pressure. Winds will be predominantly easterly
along the southern periphery of the high. This weekend, highs will
be in the upper 80s/low 90s with lows in the 60s. Temps gradually
warm up next week with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s.
[through 00z friday]
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. With afternoon
thunderstorm activity diminishing, only expect a storm in vicinity
of ecp through 02z. Overnight, winds will shift to east-northeast with the
passage of a front. Expect gusty winds up to 20 knots out of the
east-northeast on Thursday after 15z.
Enhanced east-to-northeast winds around 20-25 knots on the southern
periphery of a mid-Atlantic high will produce elevated seas starting
Thursday and lasting through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory
will likely be needed beginning tomorrow night. By Monday, light
winds and low seas should return.
A cold front will move in from the northeast tonight bringing in
drier and cooler air for Thursday. Winds will be breezy at times
on Thursday afternoon contributing to high dispersion indices. Even
with these drier and breezy conditions, relative humidity values
will remain above critical levels. Thus, red flag conditions are
Other than some scattered showers and thunderstorms today, dry
conditions will persist over the next several days. There are no
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 70 89 67 88 67 / 40 0 0 0 0
Panama City 73 88 69 87 70 / 40 10 0 0 0
Dothan 69 86 63 85 65 / 30 0 0 0 0
Albany 69 85 63 86 66 / 30 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 68 86 66 86 66 / 30 0 0 0 0
Cross City 70 87 68 88 68 / 40 10 10 10 0
Apalachicola 74 86 71 85 72 / 40 10 10 10 10