Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 ksto 242216
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento California
316 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019
above normal temperatures through midweek, peaking Tuesday, then
returning to near to slightly above normal by Friday. Dry weather
no major changes in temperatures through the weekend. Delta breeze
will continue each day helping to Cool Valley temeratures into the
60s at night with the thermal belt areas only cooling into the
low to mid 70s.
High pressure will strengthen early next week with temperatures
peaking on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will warm up to around
100 degrees for both days for most of the Central Valley to
around 105 over the far north end of the valley. Dry conditions
are forecast through Tuesday.
Extended discussion (wednesday through saturday)...
High pressure is expected to remain over the western US through
next week, bringing continued warm temperatures and mainly dry
weather to interior norcal. Ensemble models continue to show the
upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest Wednesday. The axis
will have shifted slightly east from Tuesday, allowing
daytime temperatures to cool a few degrees. A weak trough begins
to move into the eastern Pacific through the rest of the week,
beginning a slight cooling trend into the weekend. Daytime temperatures
will cool to near or slightly above normal, generally in the low
to upper 90s for the valley and 70s to 80s for the mountains.
Weak onshore flow is expected to remain which will keep morning
low temperatures relatively pleasant. Ensemble models are hinting
at the slight possibility of monsoon moisture making its way
northwest into California to produce a slight change of elevated
thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, but as of now it
looks to remain south and east of the forecast area. Hec
VFR mostly sky clear conditions over northern California through 00 UTC
Mon. Sustained surface winds generally southerly to 15 mph except
local gusts up to 25-29 kt in the Delta.