Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 ksto 212057
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento California
157 PM PDT sun Jul 21 2019
Gradual warming trend is forecast into next week with widespread
triple digits possible in the Central Valley by Wednesday. Any
thunderstorm activity is expected to remain primarily east of the
forecast area this week.
Northern California remains in between upper troughing in the
Pacific and a persistent upper high located over The Four Corners
region today through Tuesday night. Guidance continues to indicate a
shortwave progressing over the pacnw Tuesday night into Wednesday,
which in turn will allow the high pressure to expand northward
over the norcal area. Any convection with these features is
expected to remain at or just east of the Sierra Nevada crest.
Near average temperatures this afternoon will continue to increase
through mid-week as the high shifts north. Widespread valley
temperatures near or just above 100 degrees are expected by
Wednesday, roughly 5-8 degrees above normal for late July.
Extended discussion (thursday through sunday)...
Hot and dry conditions continue through late next week and into
the weekend for interior norcal. High pressure is expected to
remain centered over the Desert Southwest through the weekend.
This will allow temperatures to remain around 5 degrees above
normal with valley temperatures in the high 90s to 105 and the
mountains in the 60s to 80s. Current ensemble runs do not build
the high pressure as far west as previous runs, leaving more of a
zonal flow over norcal. If this holds, temperatures won't rise
quite as far above normal as initially thought. Also, this could
limit the extent of monsoon moisture flow into the forecast area.
For now, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms over the
northern Sierra, though storms will most likely remain south and
east of the forecast area. Hec
VFR conditions next 24 hours. Local southwest wind gusts 15-25 kts
near ksuu, otherwise winds less than 15 kts.