Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kslc 121113
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
413 am MST Tue Nov 12 2019
Synopsis...high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature
over Utah and southwest Wyoming for much of the week. A weak
disturbance will graze northern portions of the area midweek. A
more active weather pattern is possible for the upcoming weekend.
Short term (through Friday afternoon)...increasing mid and high
clouds across the Great Basin early this morning will continue
into Wednesday as the ridge shifts to the east. Dominating high
pressure and weak flow aloft will result in mild temperatures at
the surface over the next few days. Mostly thin high clouds should
help to moderate temperatures a bit while still radiating enough
warmth at night to keep overnight lows near freezing.
A weak disturbance will brush by to the northeast late tonight
through early Wednesday (mainly through eastern Idaho and western
wyoming) resulting in more widespread cloud cover. This
disturbance is fairly weak and removed from our forecast area, so
no threat of precipitation is on the horizon for the next 24-48
Shortwave ridging will continue through late in the week as an
upstream trough continues to amplify and evolve. Near seasonal
normal temperatures will continue the next few days under dry
Long term (after Friday night)...global models in agreement with
longwave pattern early in the period, with shortwave sliding across
the northern and eastern portions of the forecast area from late
Friday night through the day on Saturday. Despite limited moisture,
enough upward forcing indicated to support slight chance to chance
wording for precipitation across the northeast corner of the forecast
area, primarily across higher terrain.
In the wake of departing system, a ridge of high pressure will build
over the region Saturday and Sunday, ensuring dry weather and a
return to temperatures at or above normal.
Global solutions imply some potential for precipitation and cooler
temperatures from late Monday into Tuesday. Significant
differences exist in deterministic runs, with even ensemble guidance
suggesting varied solutions. In general, eps looks more bullish for
precipitation potential than gefs. Cluster analysis indicates a
significant number of Canadian, eps, and gefs members prog a trough
over the Great Basin late in period, supporting slight chance to
chance for precipitation from late Monday into Tuesday. At present,
snow levels with system generally look to be 7,000 feet or higher.
Aviation...light southeast winds at the kslc terminal will shift
to the northwest between 19z-20z under VFR conditions. No aviation
impacts are expected through the current taf period.
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