Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kslc 210352
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
952 PM MDT sun Oct 20 2019
a weather disturbance will advance southeast into Utah later
tonight. This feature will bring clouds and light precipitation
back into the northern half of Utah and southwest Wyoming for
late tonight through Monday morning. High pressure aloft will
expand east and bring drier and warmer air into the Great Basin
Monday night through Tuesday. The next weather disturbance will
reach Utah on Wednesday.
Short term (through 00z thursday)...
moist low-level warm advection advancing into northern Utah will
bring an expanding area of cloud cover across the northern and
central portion of the forecast overnight. Mostly light precip
could develop across far northern Utah/southwest Wyoming for later
tonight/Monday morning as the warm advection strengthens and
deepens ahead of a weak embedded shortwave moving south-southeast
through eastern Idaho/western Wyoming.
Building heights along with the arrival of drier air late Monday
through Tuesday should end any chance for precip and bring about
warming trend early in the week. Weak embedded shortwaves in the
mean layer northwest flow aloft over the interior west will offer
little support for sufficient lift to generate precip, but will
bring in slightly cooler air aloft which will serve to lower
temperatures a bit on Wednesday.
Long term (after 00z thursday)...
a back door cold front is expected to slide over the front of
the ridge centered over California Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday, bringing a cold front through Utah and southwest
Wyoming. Best moisture and dynamics with the system will be east
of the area, but some precip is possible for northeastern portions
of the forecast area. The most noticeable impact from the system
will be on temperatures, as thursday's maxes should be back to
values around 10f below seasonal normals.
The California high is progged to rebuild over the region beginning
late Thursday as the cold front exits. This will allow for dry
conditions as temperatures rebound for Friday. Another Pacific
northwest storm system will impact the weather over Utah and
southwest Wyoming late in the upcoming weekend, but significant
divergence remains among the guidance as to the extent of cold air
and associated precip. As a result, have stuck closely to blended
guidance to end the forecast period.
a weather disturbance advancing toward Utah from the northwest
will generate gradually lowering ceiling overnight. Ceiling should
settle in around 6-7 kft late tonight/Monday morning with brief
light rain possible. Prevailing southeast winds through late
Monday morning will turn to the west-northwest by the afternoon.
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