Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kslc 201454
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
854 am MDT Tue Aug 20 2019
Synopsis...high pressure building in over the region will result
in continued warm and dry conditions over the next few days.
Discussion...high pressure oriented over the Central Plains
states attm will continue to slowly retrograde along the
US/Mexico border over the next 48 hours, this maintaining a Bone
dry and benign weather pattern locally. A modest southwesterly
flow aloft within this regime will continue to promote deep mixing
of the warmer than normal airmass in place, with temps both today
and tomorrow poised to run some 5-7 degrees above seasonal norms.
With the monsoon suppressed by less than ideal ridge position, and
the northern branch well north in Canada, benign conditions will
continue with only shallow boundaries bringing subtle sensible
weather changes moving forward.
No updates made or planned this morning.
Previous discussion...a shortwave moving through the
northern rockies on Thursday will push a weak cold front south
across northern Utah. Limited moisture will keep this a dry cold
front passage, with the only sensible weather changes being an
increase in mid and high level cloud cover along with temperatures
cooling slightly to near normal values on Thursday. The cloud
cover will depart on Friday, but the cooler air will remain in
place with another day of near-normal temperatures.
Over the weekend, a broad ridge will build over the eastern Pacific
then will continue to amplify along the West Coast of British
Columbia into the first half of next week. This will keep a dry
northwesterly flow in place across northern Utah through the
extended forecast period. The warmest day will be Saturday with
temperatures running about 5 degrees above normal. Shortwaves moving
through the northern rockies will provide subtle reinforcements of
slightly cooler air Sunday through the first half of next week,
which will maintain temperatures near normal.
Aviation...modestly gusty southerly winds will once again
develop at the kslc terminal between by 16z. A 30 percent chance
of wind gusts in excess of 30 mph exists within a window between
17-20z, but in large speeds will remain less, trending even more
so late day. A brief period of light and variable or light north
winds exists within the 23-02z window, though speeds should remain
at or below 7 knots prior to returning to the south for the
Fire weather...southwest flow will continue with decreasing winds
over the next day or so as high pressure builds in. Dry and warm
weather will result from the building ridge. The threat for
critical fire weather conditions will diminish through the week as
the winds become less gusty even with low humidity values.
previous discussion/fire weather...Dewey/church
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